Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Passes $95/b

Crude oil pushes higher back above 95$/bbl towards the high from last week up around 95.9$/bbl. Tight supplies and inventory drawdowns due to OPEC+ production cuts are providing upside pressure, while a broader risk appetite weakness and recent US dollar strength offer some downside.

• Brent NOV 23 up 1.2% at 95.06$/bbl
• WTI NOV 23 up 1.4% at 91.68$/bbl
• The crude prompt time spread has eased back slightly after surging to a high of 1.7$/bbl earlier today reflecting the tight supplies and market expectation for a market deficit in Q4.
• API weekly oil stock data from late yesterday: Crude +1.6mbbl, Cushing -0.8mbbl, Gasoline -0.1mbbl, Distillate -1.7mbbl.
• Crude inventories in the European ARA region fell -1.025mbbls in the week ending 22 Sep according to the latest Genscape data.
• Saudi Aramco may raise its November OSP for Arab Light crude to Asia by 20c/bbl on the month according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of five refiners, traders.
• OIL OVER $90 PER BARREL NOT GOOD FOR INDIAN ECONOMY: OFFICIAL -bbg
• “OPEC+ looks likely to be forced to keep its current cuts in place if it wants to maintain tight market management” next year according to Eurasia Group.
• Russia’s Transneft and Kazakhstan have signed an agreement on transit of Kazakh oil through Russia for 2024, Trasneft said, cited by Tass.
• BofA has raised its Brent crude oil forecast for the second half of this year to average $91/bbl, from $81/bbl previously, as the recent run up in refining margins has helped to support prices, together with the extension to OPEC+ supply cuts.
• China's gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports may rise next month to 4.02mn tons as state-owned refiners capitalize on good margins and some western demand, while international flights recover, industry sources and analysts said.
• Gasoline demand in China looks set to peak in 2023 as electric vehicles become more popular and given the rapid elimination of commercial cars and increase in fuel efficiency according to OilChem.
• Asia’s exports of ultra-low-sulfur diesel to Europe are on track to reach a record this month, Kpler data show.
• New York diesel exports have stepped up since Russia banned fuel exports last week – shipping out three cargoes carrying more than a combined 1mn bbls over that time according to Kpler.
• Mexico’s retail dieses prices could rise in October, following Russia’s temporary ban on diesel and gasoline exports, as the country imports around 65% of its diesel needs according to Argusmedia.
• MNI COMMODITY ANALYSIS: China Golden Week Set to Serve Further Boost for International Travel - Full piece here: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscQCLlewI6ag2Jh1wGQ~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6nHWZSkptIPjO1OcQ