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OIL: Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Rangebound

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Crude front month futures remain rangebound amid thin trading as concern for a potential surplus in 2025 offsets geopolitical developments amid uncertainty over the impact of the Trump presidency on US and Iran output.

  • Crude curve backwardation continues to strengthen, since the OPEC+ output hike delay, with Jun25-Dec25 rallying to the highest since August suggesting tight supplies.
  • Global floating crude fell 16% to 60.27mbbl as of Dec. 27 from a high of 75.7mbbl in early December, according to Vortexa data cited by Bloomberg.
  • India’s state run refinery Bharat Petroleum is turning to Middle East crude grades due to less plentiful Russian supply its head of finance Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta said to Reuters.
  • CDU capacity utilisation rates at China’s state-owned refineries are expected to rise in the week to Jan. 2 amid the postponed restart of Wuhan Petrochem, according to OilChem.
  • China’s gasoline demand is projected to remain resilient with building stocks for the New Year’s holiday while Gasoil is seasonally weaker.
  • Starting from Jan 1, 2025, China will adjust the tariff rates on some imports and exports, including fuel oil. Its rates will be lifted from 1% to 3% according to OilChem, which may impact feedstock imports.
    • Brent MAR 25 up 0.3% at 73.98$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 25 up 0.4% at 70.87$/bbl
    • Brent MAR 25-APR 25 unchanged at 0.48$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 unchanged at 1.72$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 12.25$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 1$/bbl at 24.97$/bbl
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Crude front month futures remain rangebound amid thin trading as concern for a potential surplus in 2025 offsets geopolitical developments amid uncertainty over the impact of the Trump presidency on US and Iran output.

  • Crude curve backwardation continues to strengthen, since the OPEC+ output hike delay, with Jun25-Dec25 rallying to the highest since August suggesting tight supplies.
  • Global floating crude fell 16% to 60.27mbbl as of Dec. 27 from a high of 75.7mbbl in early December, according to Vortexa data cited by Bloomberg.
  • India’s state run refinery Bharat Petroleum is turning to Middle East crude grades due to less plentiful Russian supply its head of finance Vetsa Ramakrishna Gupta said to Reuters.
  • CDU capacity utilisation rates at China’s state-owned refineries are expected to rise in the week to Jan. 2 amid the postponed restart of Wuhan Petrochem, according to OilChem.
  • China’s gasoline demand is projected to remain resilient with building stocks for the New Year’s holiday while Gasoil is seasonally weaker.
  • Starting from Jan 1, 2025, China will adjust the tariff rates on some imports and exports, including fuel oil. Its rates will be lifted from 1% to 3% according to OilChem, which may impact feedstock imports.
    • Brent MAR 25 up 0.3% at 73.98$/bbl
    • WTI FEB 25 up 0.4% at 70.87$/bbl
    • Brent MAR 25-APR 25 unchanged at 0.48$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 unchanged at 1.72$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 12.25$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 1$/bbl at 24.97$/bbl