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Mid-Month IPCA Inflation Due At Top Of Hour

BRAZIL
  • Consumer prices for the first half of October are expected to rise again on a monthly basis after three months of deflation. A low headline print will likely reflect moderate gains in food prices and a decline in transportation costs -- the latter mostly driven by the residual effects of September fuel-price cuts. Data is due at 1300BST/0800ET:
    • Oct. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/m, est. 0.09%, prior -0.37%
    • Oct. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 Y/y, est. 6.78%, prior 7.96%
  • The data is not expected to alter the course for the BCB, who will decide on rates on Wednesday. All 44 estimates provided to the Bloomberg Survey forecast the Selic rate to be left unchanged at 13.75%.
  • After holding rates in September, the consensus view remains that the Copom has ended its tightening cycle. Despite two members voting for a 25bp hike at that meeting, MNI expects a unanimous decision to keep rates unchanged this week as both IPCA readings and inflation expectations continue to moderate.
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