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Middle East Risk Premium Boosts Crude Prices Ahead of IEA Report

OIL

Brent is trading higher again today after a pull back yesterday but is net down on the week. The risk premium from the potential for an escalation in Middle East conflict is partly offset by a stronger USD ahead of the updated monthly oil report from IEA today.

    • Brent JUN 24 up 0.8% at 90.49$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 24 up 1% at 85.87$/bbl
    • Gasoil MAY 24 up 0.9% at 829.75$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.04$/bbl at -5.21$/bbl
  • Oil prices had ease yesterday with no military strikes from Iran or proxies but the US believes that an attack against military and government targets in Israel are imminent. Reuters reported that a response from Iran will be aimed at avoiding major escalation.
  • US officials reportedly met with Venezuelan officials this week, with democratic reforms discussed ahead of the deadline around US sanctions on the country's oil industry on April 18.
  • OPEC maintained its oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and for 2025 steady, while slightly lowering the non-OPEC supply forecast for this year according to the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
    • Brent JUN 24-JUL 24 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.9$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 4.94$/bbl
  • Brent and WTI curve backwardation has eased slightly from the steep levels seen late last week but remains in a bullish trend with spreads strengthening since mid December.
  • Diesel cracks are continuing their recent trend of softening amid seasonally lower demand while gasoline cracks have regained ground in recent days with a tight US market expected into the summer driving season.
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 31.46$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.5$/bbl at 27.09$/bbl

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