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MIDEAST: Hezbollah Chief Leaves Door To Israel Ceasefire Ajar

MIDEAST
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Delivering his first speech since officially taking over the Hezbollah leadership, Naim Qassem said on the prospect of a cessation in hostilities with Israel, 'If the Israelis want to stop the war, we will accept. But we will not beg for a ceasefire. Nor will we talk directly to the Israelis.' Says that Hezbollah would agree to a ceasefire 'on the conditions that we see as appropriate and suitable'.  

  • Earlier we noted the discussions reported to be taking place within the Israeli gov't on a ceasefire in Lebanon (see 'MIDEAST: New Hezbollah Ldr Qassem To Deliver First Speech @ 1500 Local Time', 1203GMT).
  • The talk of a potential cessation of hostilities in Lebanon comes in the wake of Israel's retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites. It would appear that hitting military sites, rather than oil and gas or nuclear targets, has come at the lower end of the potential spectrum of retaliation, lowering the risk of Tehran launching another counterstrike. The Iranian National Air Defense HQ claimed the strikes caused “limited damage", while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the attack should not be "exaggerated".
  • This is not to say that an Iranian strike will not happen. The IRGC-linked Javan newspaper claimed Iran had "the right for a strong response to a weak attack.” Tehran faces the difficult choice of either not responding and looking weak, or retaliating and risking a broader regional conflagration. 
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Delivering his first speech since officially taking over the Hezbollah leadership, Naim Qassem said on the prospect of a cessation in hostilities with Israel, 'If the Israelis want to stop the war, we will accept. But we will not beg for a ceasefire. Nor will we talk directly to the Israelis.' Says that Hezbollah would agree to a ceasefire 'on the conditions that we see as appropriate and suitable'.  

  • Earlier we noted the discussions reported to be taking place within the Israeli gov't on a ceasefire in Lebanon (see 'MIDEAST: New Hezbollah Ldr Qassem To Deliver First Speech @ 1500 Local Time', 1203GMT).
  • The talk of a potential cessation of hostilities in Lebanon comes in the wake of Israel's retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites. It would appear that hitting military sites, rather than oil and gas or nuclear targets, has come at the lower end of the potential spectrum of retaliation, lowering the risk of Tehran launching another counterstrike. The Iranian National Air Defense HQ claimed the strikes caused “limited damage", while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the attack should not be "exaggerated".
  • This is not to say that an Iranian strike will not happen. The IRGC-linked Javan newspaper claimed Iran had "the right for a strong response to a weak attack.” Tehran faces the difficult choice of either not responding and looking weak, or retaliating and risking a broader regional conflagration.