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Midrange at Midweek

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries running lower, yields near steady after a quiet overnight session, curves are steeper (2s10s +0.192 at -36.156). Quiet overnight session, month end extension trade absent as yet ahead of the early week close for the Easter holiday.
  • Treasury futures trade mildly weaker, off recent lows as rates hold to a narrow overnight range: light volumes, the Jun'24 10Y (TYM4) contract is just over 200k, trades 110-19 last (-1.5) with initial technical support at 110-08+/109-24+ (Low Mar 21 / 18 and the bear trigger); resistance at 110-30.5 (Mar 21/22 high).
  • Economic data limited to MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, capped by revised Wholesale sales, inventories at 1000ET.
  • Scheduled Fed-speak: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will discuss his economic outlook at an event hosted by the Economic Club NY this evening at 1800ET, text and Q&A is expected.
  • US Treasury auctions continue with $28B 2Y FRN and $60B 17W Bills at 1130ET, $43B 7Y Notes (91282CJU6) at 1300ET.
  • Short end SOFR futures mildly weaker while projected rate cut pricing continues to ebb: May 2024 at -13.9% w/ cumulative -3.5bp at 5.291%; June 2024 -63.1% w/ cumulative rate cut -19.3bp at 5.134%. July'24 cumulative at -29.6bp, Sep'24 cumulative -48.6bp at 4.841%.
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