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MIDTERMS: Betting Markets See Early Signs Of Strong Democrat Performance

US

Betting markets are showing signs that early counts from New Hampshire, Georgia, and Pennsylvania may deliver strong results for Democrats.

  • Betting exchange Smarkets has seen Democrats tick up from 30% to 40% implied probability of retaining control of the Senate in the last hour.
  • This is mainly due to early count in New Hampshire showing incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH) with a strong lead over Gen Don Bolduc (R).
  • In Georgia, the race seen as most likely to determine control of the Senate, Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) has an early lead over Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker.
  • 538 has determined that the Georgia voting dynamics closely tracks that of the special election which gave Warnock the seat last year. It is looking like a very tight race.
  • Senate control is seen as crucial to Democrats. If they retain control of the Senate, Biden will be a position to continuing confirming federal postings including judges and ambassadors. (A Supreme Court judge too in the unlikely event a seat on the bench becomes available).
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