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MIDTERMS: Nevada Senate Race On A Knife-Edge

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The Nevada US Senate race remains on a knife-edge, with Republican challenger Adam Laxalt holding a narrow lead over incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, but a large number of mail-in ballots still to be counted in Democrat-leaning Clark County.

  • With 75% of ballots counted, Laxalt - a Trump-backed former state AG - leads Cortez Masto by 49.9% of the vote to 47.2%, a gap of 22,595 ballots.
  • Data from Smarkets shows betting market implied probability of 71.4% that Cortez Masto retains the seat, with Laxalt afforded a 39.7% implied probability of winning (sums to more than 100% due to bookmaker's profit). Market very erratic, though, with these numbers nearly reversed just an hour ago at 0430ET/0930GMT.
  • John Ralston at the Nevada Independent: "If there are 100K mail ballots left in Clark, which would make sense based on turnout there, and the Dems win by the 2-to-1 margin they have so far, CCM could come back to win."
  • Ryan Matusomoto at Inside Elections: "If Cortez Masto were to win 100k Clark absentees 66%-33% with 1% voting "none of these candidates", that would bring results to: Cortez Masto 461,866, Laxalt 451,461. This would be a Cortez Masto lead of about 1.11%. A few key factors though in Nevada: - How accurate is the 100k Clark mail ballot number?- Do remaining mail ballots differ from counted mail ballots for whatever reason?- Other mail ballots, particularly from Washoe County."
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The Nevada US Senate race remains on a knife-edge, with Republican challenger Adam Laxalt holding a narrow lead over incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, but a large number of mail-in ballots still to be counted in Democrat-leaning Clark County.

  • With 75% of ballots counted, Laxalt - a Trump-backed former state AG - leads Cortez Masto by 49.9% of the vote to 47.2%, a gap of 22,595 ballots.
  • Data from Smarkets shows betting market implied probability of 71.4% that Cortez Masto retains the seat, with Laxalt afforded a 39.7% implied probability of winning (sums to more than 100% due to bookmaker's profit). Market very erratic, though, with these numbers nearly reversed just an hour ago at 0430ET/0930GMT.
  • John Ralston at the Nevada Independent: "If there are 100K mail ballots left in Clark, which would make sense based on turnout there, and the Dems win by the 2-to-1 margin they have so far, CCM could come back to win."
  • Ryan Matusomoto at Inside Elections: "If Cortez Masto were to win 100k Clark absentees 66%-33% with 1% voting "none of these candidates", that would bring results to: Cortez Masto 461,866, Laxalt 451,461. This would be a Cortez Masto lead of about 1.11%. A few key factors though in Nevada: - How accurate is the 100k Clark mail ballot number?- Do remaining mail ballots differ from counted mail ballots for whatever reason?- Other mail ballots, particularly from Washoe County."