MIDTERMS: New Poll Shows Warnock With Slight Lead In Georgia Runoff

A new poll from the Emerson College has shown incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) with a two-percentage-point lead over Republican challenger for the important Georgian Senate runoff.

• According to the poll, 49 percent of very likely voters said they would vote for Warnock against 47 percent who said they would vote for Walker.
• The poll falls well within the four-percentage-point polling margin of error, suggesting that the race may be tighter than betting markets predict - Smarkets gives Warnock a 90% implied probability of winning.
• Spencer Kimball of Emerson said: “...A Walker win would surprise the majority of voters. About 1 in 5 Republicans expect their nominee to lose. This reflects a significant shift since the last pre-general election poll earlier this month, where voters were nearly 50-50 if Warnock or Walker would win."
• A Warnock win would break the 50-50 Senate deadlock for Democrats, allow for smooth confirmation of President Biden's judicial and other federal nominees, and provide another crucial Senate seat ahead of the 2024 elections when Democrats are defending two thirds of Senate seats up for grabs and have few pickup opportunities.