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MIDTERMS: No Signs Of Significant Polling Errors

US

One of the key questions ahead of today's elections was on reliability of polling following systematic polling errors in 2016 and 2020.

  • So far, there have been few significant shocks reported. Florida's lurch to the GOP was slightly underrated by polls but consistent with underlying trends.
  • The reliability polling error has ruled out the prospect of a red wave and a "roe wave" in favour of Democrats.
  • Republicans remain overwhelming favourite to take control of the House, and slightly favoured to take control of the Senate although betting markets have been increasingly pricing in a Democrat win in the Senate. Betting exchange Smarkets currently gives GOP an implied probability of 58% of winning the Senate compared with 47% for Democrats.
  • Voting has just closed in Arizona. The race between incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Trump-endorsed Blake Masters (R) and Kari Lake's (R) run for governor's mansion are the races to follow.
  • If Kelly wins the Arizona race, the GOP will need to win both Georgia and Nevada to take control of the Senate - a tall order.

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