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MIDTERMS: Senator Paul Wins Third Term, Beasley Has Early Mirage Lead In NC

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Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has easily won a third term in the Kentucky Senate race, in-line with expectation.

  • Over in the open North Carolina Senate race - which MNI rated as an outside chance of a Democrat flip if Democrats outperform expectations - Cheri Beasley (D) is leading Ted Budd (R) 55%-45% in the early vote count.
  • North Carolina usually has a high proportion of early and absentee votes which skew Democrat so that race will tighten in the coming hours.
  • Keep watching this race for a sign that Democrat are outperforming. If Beasley wins, its hard to see a pathway for the GOP taking the Senate.
  • Betting exchange Smarkets showing Budd with a 90% implied probability of winning.
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Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has easily won a third term in the Kentucky Senate race, in-line with expectation.

  • Over in the open North Carolina Senate race - which MNI rated as an outside chance of a Democrat flip if Democrats outperform expectations - Cheri Beasley (D) is leading Ted Budd (R) 55%-45% in the early vote count.
  • North Carolina usually has a high proportion of early and absentee votes which skew Democrat so that race will tighten in the coming hours.
  • Keep watching this race for a sign that Democrat are outperforming. If Beasley wins, its hard to see a pathway for the GOP taking the Senate.
  • Betting exchange Smarkets showing Budd with a 90% implied probability of winning.