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MIDTERMS: Warnock Slight Favourite In Georgia Senate Runoff

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Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is favoured to retain his Senate seat, according to betting exchange Smarkets.

  • Smarkets shows Warnock with a nearly 77% implied probability of winning the December 6 runoff against Trump-endorsed Republican Herschel Walker.
  • A Warnock victory would hand him a six-year term and deliver a 51st Senate seat to Democrats, ending the 50-50 Senate deadlock which gave Democrats persistent headaches for the first two years of President Biden's term in the White House.

Chart 1: Georgia Senate Runoff, % Implied Probability of Winning (Smarkets)

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Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is favoured to retain his Senate seat, according to betting exchange Smarkets.

  • Smarkets shows Warnock with a nearly 77% implied probability of winning the December 6 runoff against Trump-endorsed Republican Herschel Walker.
  • A Warnock victory would hand him a six-year term and deliver a 51st Senate seat to Democrats, ending the 50-50 Senate deadlock which gave Democrats persistent headaches for the first two years of President Biden's term in the White House.

Chart 1: Georgia Senate Runoff, % Implied Probability of Winning (Smarkets)