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Mild Bear Flattening Amidst Low Volumes

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries see a mild sell-off after mixed signals from China overnight with Shanghai restarting its re-opening process and PBOC support for the property sector but also softer than expected data.
  • The broadly parallel moves in the curve compared to recent shifts leave 2s10s towards the lower end of last week’s wide range at 33bps.
  • 2YY +1.7bps at 2.595%, 5YY +1.4bps at 2.879%, 10YY +0.7bps at 2.926% and 30YY +1.2bps at 3.091%.
  • TYM2 sits 2+ ticks higher at 119-08 on low volumes. The primary downtrend in Treasuries remains intact, however, a corrective (bullish) cycle established last week remains in play, suggesting potential for short-term gains. Support is eyed at 118-03+ (May 11 low post-CPI) whilst resistance is seen at 120-01 (Apr 28 high).
  • Light docket (Empire Mfg and TIC Flows) puts additional focus on NY Fed Williams's discussion with the MBA at 0855ET (no text)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $45B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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