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Mild Bull Flattening Only Chips Away At Significant Twist Steepening

US TSYS
  • Tsys have leant on a dovish BoJ’s Ueda and softer than expected French flash PMI data for support, with the bid then capped by stronger than expected German PMIs in London trade (albeit with mfg still sub-40).
  • Cash benchmark yields sit 1bp to 2bp richer with 2s10s at -66bps off overnight highs of -63bps but still notably steeper than the -76bp at the close after Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC dot plot following yesterday's large twist steepening.
  • It sets up today’s preliminary US PMIs at 0945ET, headlining an otherwise light data docket, with conflicting signs so far from regional Fed mfg surveys and a welcome look at service activity in September. First post-FOMC Fedspeak rounds out the session.
  • TYZ3 trades towards the middle of a relatively narrow 10+ range currently at 108-14+, under decent volumes of 350k. It remains close to initial support at yesterday’s low of 108-08, after which lies the round 108-00.
  • Fedspeak: Cook at AI conference (0850ET), Daly fireside chat (1300ET), Kashkari fireside chat (1300ET) and possibly Collins (1000ET).

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