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Mildly Cheaper Ahead Of ADP and 2nd GDP Release

US TSYS
  • Tsys remain a little softer on the day, although moves in European peers have been more pronounced, with CPI readings from the continent front and centre thus far after German regions suggest stronger than expected national CPI.
  • Cash Tsys run 1.5-2.5bp cheaper across the curve, while TYZ3 is -0-05 at 110-21 off a low of 110-18+ at the low end of a contained 0-09+ range. The corrective cycle is seen in play with resistance at 110-29+ (Aug 29 high) and support at 109-18+ (Aug 25 low).
  • Flow has seen a FV/US block steepener (+8,020/-2,500) for the second time in as many London sessions, with similar size deployed at around the same time of day on both occasions.
  • FOMC-dated OIS is incrementally firmer on the day but holds the bulk of yesterday's data inspired dovish repricing. Terminal policy rate pricing shows at 5.46% (come November), before 45bp of cuts are priced through June '24.
  • Data: MBA mortgage data (0700ET), ADP employment Aug (0815ET), GDP and core PCE deflator 2nd Q2 (0830ET), Advance trade balance Jul (0830ET), Pending home sales (1000ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $50B 17-week bills (1130ET).

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