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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Secretart of State for Northern Ireland Brandon Lewis has stated in media rounds this morning that he believes under-fire Prime Minister Boris Johnson can still win the next election for the centre-right Conservatives. Lewis' comments come as the latest YouGov opinion poll puts the Conservatives on 28% support, 10 points behind the centre-left Labour Party on 38%.
- The last time the Conservatives recorded such a low level of support in a YouGov poll was 24 July 2019, the day Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservatives and prime minister.
- Labour have not held a 10% lead over the Conservatives in any poll since 21 May 2019 (Panelbase), and in a YouGov poll since January 2014.
- Support from Cabinet colleagues for Johnson has been almost unanimous, but in some cases notably lukewarm.
- Betting markets now see 2022 as the strong likely exit year for Johnson as PM, with 22.2% of bettors believing he will be gone by end-March 2022 according to Smarkets. The overall implied probability of his leaving office in 2022 stands at 62.4%.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of PM Johnson Exit Date by Quarter, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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