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Minor Bear Steepening After Substantial Flattening

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a small bear steepening after substantial flattening since the FOMC, nudging the 2s10s up to 62.5bps but still 12bps flatter from before the Fed.
  • 2Y yields are +2.4bps at 1.212%, 5Y +2.7bps at 1.685%, 10Y +4.1bps at 1.841% and 30Y +3.7bps at 2.130%.
  • TYH2 is down 7+ ticks at 127-13+ on modestly below average volumes. It is near support at 127-06+ (Jan 26 low) which is then closely followed by the bear trigger of 127-02 (Jan 19 low).
  • Two key data releases at 0830ET, with the core PCE deflator for Dec (consensus for another +0.5% M/M) and the Q4 ECI of particular note after Powell specifically attributed the jump to 1.3% Q/Q in Q3 as a key reason to accelerating taper (cons for marginal moderation to 1.2% Q/Q). Finalised U.Mich consumer sentiment and inflation expectations follow at 1000ET.
  • No Fed buy-operation, no Tsy Supply and no Fed speakers schedule as yet (out of blackout).

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