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Minutes: Deutsche Looking For Hike Pace Conditions, QT Clues

FED

Regarding the path of rates, Deutsche is looking to the May FOMC minutes to see "what conditions officials are looking for to determine whether they can revert to 25bp increments at that point (which is our base case), stick with 50bp moves, or pivot to a more aggressive tightening with 75bp increases coming into consideration."

  • "Key to these decisions will be how officials are viewing the evolution of inflation and labor market tightness over the coming months, two topics we expect to hear a lot about in the minutes."
  • They're also looking for QT clues, specifically "any insights into why officials chose to run down their Treasury bill holdings at a slower pace, as well as the discussions around the potential for MBS sales down the road."
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