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Minutes Preview: Deutsche And Scotia Look For Econ Growth Discussion (2/3)

  • Deutsche: Looking for "hints about how the Committee is thinking about the tradeoff between some economic pain and the need to bring inflation down over time" and eyeing "discussions around the surprise pivot to a 75bp rate increase in June, as well as the thresholds needed to downshift the pace of hikes."
  • Scotia: "Discussions around recession risk may be enhanced in the minutes and there may be a greater discussion around the nearer-term size and pace of hikes notwithstanding the dot plot’s 3.5% year-end point. Markets are mostly priced for another 75bps move at the July 27th meeting and so language around the frequency of opinion supporting a 75bps move versus 50 may inform this betting."

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