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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GREECE
Polling ahead of the 21 May election shows Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' centre-right New Democracy on course to win a plurality of seats, but fall short of an overall majority with around 119-121 out of 300 on offer. With the main opposition leftist SYRIZA set to come in second place with between 94 and 100 seats, the centre-left PASOK (projected 33-36 seats) are likely to emerge as the kingmakers post-election.
- Based on recent polling, ND and PASOK together would likely cross the 151-seat threshold for a majority gov't. However, PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis was a target of a phone spyware scandal that implicated members of the National Intelligence Service, a department directly under the PM's control. As such, a partnership with ND may not prove workable.
- The other option could be a broad leftist coalition with SYRIZA, PASOK, and former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis' anti-austerity MeRA25, propped up from outside by the Communist Party (KKE). However, this could also prove unworkable, with PASOK much more centrist than SYRIZA, let alone MeRA25 and the KKE.
- If it is impossible to form a governing coalition, snap elections could be called. A second election would be held under a reinforced proportional system rather than the current simple proportional system. This would see the largest party awarded an additional 50 seat 'majority bonus', ensuring that it can govern alone.
Chart 1. Seat Projections for General Election Based on Opinion Polling
Source: MRB, Metron Analysis, GPO, Pulse RC, Kapa Research, Marc-Proto Thema, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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