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Mixed Bag Of Data

CANADA
  • Retail sales disappoint at a headline level in March at just 0.0% M/M (-1% in real terms) after the flash survey had pointed to +1.4% M/M after 37% of responses, but it was all on autos. Sales ex autos beat expectations at +2.4% (cons 2.1%), or +1.5% when also stripping out gasoline sales.
  • Total sales are seen +0.8% M/M in the April flash, implying little real spending with CPI at 0.7% M/M in April after 1.0% in March, for a crude deflator.
  • One of the main takeaways from the SEPH report was the jump in vacancies, pushing the job vacancy rate to a joint record high of 5.9% in March, likely putting further upward pressure on wages.
  • Hitting at the same time as US data, USDCAD is within a few pips of prior levels, +0.05% at 1.2822, whilst the front-end rally extends further to -4bps on the day for 2YY.
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