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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA
Today's mixed China data is unlikely to shift the narrative around the challenging growth backdrop. We have seen a better tone to local equities, with the CSI 300 holding +1% higher at this stage. However, this comes after we made early lows under 3300, which were levels last seen in February this year.
- Prior to today's data, the Citi China activity surprise index was sitting comfortably in negative territory and around lows back to September last year. Indeed the index has been in negative territory since mid June of this year, see the chart below where this index is overlaid against J.P. Morgan's growth forecast revision index for China. This index has also edged down with recent negative data surprises.
- The consensus forecast for 2024 GDP growth sits at 4.9%, down slightly from YTD highs of 5.0%, per the latest Bloomberg survey.
- Today's data outcomes showed a slight upside surprise on retail sales, while IP and fixed asset investment were both marginally below expectations. There was little turn around in property related indicators.
- Less deterioration on the consumer front may be aiding market sentiment at the margins, but most the discussion is likely to remain on the need for further stimulus.
- Outside of equities, USD/CNH sits off session highs, last near 7.1570. Earlier we got to 7.1620.
Fig 1: Citi China EASI & J.P Morgan China Growth Forecast Revision Index
Source: Citi/J.P. Morgan/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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