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Mixed Retail Sales Pre Banking Disruption Impact

CANADA DATA
  • Retail sales were stronger than expected in January, rising 1.4% M/M (cons 0.7) and with ex-autos 0.9% (cons 0.6), although it was clouded by the February advance falling -0.6%.
  • In volume terms, the 3M/3M trend of 2% annualized for Jan was similar to the 2% for broader household consumption growth within GDP back in Q4.
  • Some potential weakness in Feb wouldn’t be unexpected with the BoC previously forecasting minimal growth in Q1 far before any impact from recent US regional bank issues.
  • Those banking spillover concerns continue to dominate markets, with data having little impact. 2YY are off lows but still down -18bps on the day (Tsys -19bps).


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