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Mixed Trends In Early Trade

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Front EDZ2 holding close to yesterday’s highs in continued thin trade (+0.015 from Wed’s post-FOMC minutes close).
  • Larger declines thereafter, unwinding the post-minutes rally with EDZ3 -0.02 and EDZ4 -0.05 again from Wed close.
  • The differences are mirrored in Fed Funds pricing, with reluctance to price much more than the 50bp hike widely seen as a done deal for the Dec 14 decision (52bp priced).
  • The peak implied yield of 5.27% in EDM3 is unchanged, continuing to trim inversion with EDM3/EDZ3 -0.435 (Nov 15 low of -0.6) although with the pace of cuts into 2024 is still close to record (-1.22 vs -1.25 Wed close).

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