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Mkt Roundup: Short End Rebounds, Curves Extend Steepening

US TSYS
Tsy futures see-sawing off midmorning lows, long end underperforming on heavy volumes (TYM2>1.3M) as curves continue to bounce off early week lows (5s and 10s vs. 30s steeper but still inverted: -10.691 (+4.694) and -7.356 (+5.238) respectively). 30YY currently running at 2.6228% (+0.0499) vs. 2.6766% high.
  • Short end now in the black well after large 2Y Block buys from 105-15 to -16.
  • Follow-through hawkish Fed rhetoric from Philly Fed Harker and Richmond Fed Barkin today after Tue comments from Fed Gov Brainard and KC Fed George: importance of keeping inflation contained by raising rates methodically and starting draw balance sheet draw down as soon as May.
  • "Acutely concerned" by rising inflation Harker too expects a series of "deliberate, methodical hikes" similar to Brainard's but near verbatim from last week's statements. Barkin open to 50bp hikes if needed: a "judgement call" on the road to 9-10 hikes before neutral reached.
  • Otherwise, market focus on March minutes release at 1400ET w/ particular interest in start/pacing of balance sheet drawdown.
  • Current cross asset: West Texas Crude (WTI) -$2.58 (-2.53%) at $99.37; Gold +$4.69 (0.24%) at $1928.22.
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