MNI: 2nd-Term Von der Leyen Seen Toning Down EU Climate Push

Ursula von der Leyen is on course to beat off likely rivals including Mario Draghi to win a second term as European Commission president following June 4-6 elections to the European Parliament, but would adjust her emphasis on climate change and legislative activity to suit the new intake of MEPs, officials following the campaigns told MNI.

Von der Leyen has been campaigning hard in a contest whose first round will be decided in a qualified majority vote by the European Council soon after the parliamentary elections. The winner will then require an absolute majority of the next parliament’s 720 MEPs in a secret ballot not set to take place until October or November.

While even von der Leyen’s supporters acknowledge that her support for the green transition and the war effort in Ukraine may complicate her chances following elections in which the hard right is expected to make significant gains, she has significant advantages over her principal rivals.

PAN-EUROPEAN BLOCS

One of these, former ECB President Draghi, is not part of any of the main European political blocs, meaning that his candidacy would complicate the customary share-out of top roles. In contrast, von der Leyen is a member of the centre-right European People’s Party, though she has cultivated relations in different parts of the spectrum, including with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. (See MNI: Meloni Seeks Euro Election Leverage For Tax Drive-Aides)

“Draghi’s problem is that he is not a Socialist,” said one source, referring to the fact that the EPP and Socialists – the two biggest blocs in the parliament – would expect to take the two biggest EU jobs – the Commission and the presidency of the European Council.

The only Socialist competitor for the Commission presidency is currently former Portuguese PM Antonio Costa, who recently resigned amid a corruption probe.

Still, Draghi is seen as a more significant contender to lead the Council. The former central banker is preparing a major report on an overhaul of European competitiveness, and if his findings, to be presented to EU leaders at their June 29-30 summit, are well received that may boost his chances of securing the Council on a mandate to secure Europe’s economic and security future. (See MNI: Watered-Down EU Deal Points To Resistence To Draghi Plan)

Some officials cited speculation that French President Emmanuel Macron may attempt to circumvent the system of dividing the spoils and back Draghi, following public criticism of von der Leyen by French Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton and others aligned to the EP Renew bloc, with which Macron’s Renaissance party is aligned.

MACRON SPEECH

Macron’s recent marathon speech on the future of Europe certainly chimed with remarks made by Draghi recently on the need for the bloc to follow the more assertive U.S. and Chinese approaches to economic security and competitiveness. Draghi’s talk of more streamlined EU decision-making, with a smaller group of like-minded states going ahead faster on key policies, like Capital Markets Union, would also be music to Macron’s ears.

The French president led an earlier circumvention of convention in 2019 when the leader of the EPP Manfred Weber was passed over for the Commission in favour of von der Leyen and former Belgian liberal PM Charles Michel took the Council. Spanish Socialist Josep Borrell was awarded the role of EU High Representative for foreign affairs and security policy.

But others played down the suggestion that Macron might try to do something similar this time, arguing that he is merely biding his time until the election results, which are likely to see a strong performance by France’s far-right National Rally.

Regardless of who wins the Commission seat, the current Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis looks likely to take on a new umbrella role themed around competitiveness and economic security, making him a key player in the transformation of the continent’s economy, officials said.