MNI 5 THINGS. Australian Retail Sales Seen Flat In January

By Lachlan Colquhoun

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's January retail trade data for January will be

released Thursday, with little pick-up seen from the weak December data.

     Here are five things to look for in the Australian Bureau of Statistics

release.

Stagnating sales. 

Retail trade fell 0.4% in December and another flat result is expected for

January. Other industry-based retail sales indices are pointing to a poor

result, with data compiled by the Australian Industry Group and leading bank NAB

both painting a grim picture for the retail sector. NAB's Online Sales Index

fell 0.5% in January.

Conflicting pointers. 

Earlier survey data released in February suggested a slight rebound, but data

later in the month was more negative. The Commonwealth Bank's Business Sales

indicator accelerated and NAB's other sales index, which measures cashless

sales, gained 0.6 % in January.

Slowing Economy. 

Disappointing retail sales are part of a general slowing in the Australian

economy, highlighted by sluggish 0.2% GDP growth for the December quarter.

Evidence is mounting for the RBA to change its outlook and become more dovish,

moving from its current balanced position further towards an easing bias.

Online sales closely watched. 

One area of retail which has continued to improve has been online sales, but

growth slowed in December. A negative result, as suggested by the NAB index,

would remove a key support from the overall figure to deliver a bleak snapshot

of the sector.

Food, clothing and footwear and cafes to the rescue? 

These three categories were the only ones in positive territory in December, but

the end of the Christmas holiday period could see them turn negative as well.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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