MNI 5 THINGS: Canada February Payrolls Seen Posting a Rebound

By Yali N'Diaye

     OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are key points to watch for in Statistics

Canada's February Labor Force Survey to be released Friday:

     - Analysts in a MNI survey expect a 20,000 rebound in employment that would

only partly offset January's 88,000 drop, the largest since January 2009. The

unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 5.9%. Despite an economic

growth slowdown, the above-potential growth pace is expected to support job

creation.

     - Part-time versus full-time: while employment declined in January, it was

entirely due to part-time positions, which fell a record 137,000. Instead,

full-time employment was up 49,000. Full-time jobs are considered better quality

jobs and the split between part-time and full-time will be important for

analysts to watch.

     - Also closely watched will be the private sector, an important indicator

of businesses' confidence. Private-sector employment fell 70,700 in January, the

largest drop since January 2009, so a rebound would help to offset the concerns

from that decline. 

     -  Wage growth remains high on the Bank of Canada's radar screen to assess

the labor market slack. Wage growth for permanent workers rose 3.3%

year-over-year in January, the largest gain since March 2016, extending a trend

that started last May. In its policy statement Wednesday, the BOC indicated the

pace of wage growth implies there is still slack in the labor market. "Wage

growth has firmed, but remains lower than would be typical in an economy with no

labor market slack," it said.

     - The participation rate fell to 65.5% in January, the lowest since July

2016, not a development the BOC welcomes, especially since it included the

decline in the participation of youth to 63.6% from 63.9%. BOC Governor Stephen

Poloz has several times voiced his concern over youth unemployment. The

unemployment rate for youths aged 15 to 24 rose to 10.9% in January from 10.5%

in December.

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com

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