MNI 5 THINGS: China Feb Trade May Show Deficit, Lower Imports

--Despite U.S. Sabre Rattling On Trade, No Measurable Impact In Data

     BEIJING (MNI) -  China's General Administration of Customs will release

February trade statistics on Thursday. Below are the five things we would look

for:

     - Half of analysts surveyed expect a trade deficit in February. Looking at

historical data over the last decade, exports shrank considerably in February.

Imports, although lower, could exceed exports to result in a February deficit. 

     - Exports are seen up 13.0% from year earlier, compared with a 11.1% growth

in January, which, if confirmed, will mark the 12th consecutive month of

increase. The low base effect from the same period last year probably counted as

the biggest contributor to higher export growth. On the other hand, with

international commodities prices off their January peak, total export values

will likely ease.

     - Imports will likely fall from January's 11-month-high of a 36.8%

year-on-year gain to just 9.6% year-on-year pick-up. Weak domestic demand,

particularly with the production-limit policy in northern China through the

winter, could hit imports. The Chinese New Year holiday fell entirely in

February, leading to less trading days, will also have an impact.

     - Although February is unlikely to have seen any direct impact from the

trade war rhetoric from Washington, emerging nations may look to exploit any

tensions to tighten their relationship with China. Meantime, China is aiming to

push ahead with its transition from labor intensive exports to hi-tech intensive

products as it aims to consolidate its place as the globe's biggest trading

nation.

     - China' 2018 foreign trade target is to keep trade stable "with good

momentum".  Premier Li Keqiang announced Monday in the Government Works Report

he will look to lower the tariffs on imported automobiles and other daily goods

in the Government Work Report released on Monday, which would lead to a

significant boost for China imports.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: beijing@mni-news.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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