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UK Public Sector Finance Data Due at 7:00 BST Tomorrow

UK DATA
  • UK Public Sector Finance Data is due for release at 7:00BST tomorrow. This data is not normally too market moving.
  • This is the first release for the new financial year 24/25.
  • The Treasury will have made its quarterly Asset Purchase Facility payment in April. The OBR forecasts this to increase borrowing by GBP10.9bln, skewing PSNB up to an estimated GBP19.3 bln in April (slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of GBP18.5bln with analyst estimates ranging from GBP17.1bln to 19.1bln). The APF transfer will make up the majority of the change in the monthly figure compared to March’s GBP11.02bln print.
  • On PSNBex, the Bloomberg consensus of GBP 19.3bln has a upside skew among analysts ranging from GBP20.5bln to 12.5bln.
  • Both the increase of the National Living Wage and potentially increased working hours (from employees more willing to take on additional hours given the NI cut) will be watched on the income tax / NI receipts. NIC cash receipts are forecast at GBP16.6bln and PAYE income tax receipts at GBP28.2bln.
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