**MNI 5 THINGS:NY Fed Survey 1yr And 3yr Infl Exp Unch At 3.0%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the April Consumer

Expectations Survey from the New York Fed released Monday: 

     - Median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0% for both the

one-year and three-year horizon. While consumers expectations for inflation did

not change, their uncertainty continued its upward trend, reaching its highest

level since March of last year.

     - Consumers' optimism towards the labor market was mixed in the May report,

as the median expectation of unemployment being higher one year from now dipped

slightly to 34.1%. However, even as consumers expect low unemployment to

continue, expectations for year ahead earnings growth declined by 0.2pp to 2.5%,

matching its 12-month average.

     - Interestingly, both the mean perceived probability of losing a job and

leaving voluntarily in the next 12-months increased, to 14.0% and 21.4%

respectively. Showing consumers' continued confidence in the strength of the

labor market, the perceived probability of finding a new job increased to 59.9%

- 0.2pp away from the series high reached in November 2017.

     - The median expected household income growth decreased to 2.6%, largely

driven by lower educated and lower income respondents. As expectations for

income growth fell, so did expectations for spending growth - after three months

of gains prior, the median fell back to its 12-month average.

     - Despite an increase in the proportion of consumers perceiving easier

credit now than a year ago, consumers are less optimistic about credit

availability one-year from now. The proportion of consumers expecting tightening

in credit access increased 1.3pp to 30.4%. Accordingly, the perceived

probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three-months also

increased, rising 0.7pp to 11.7% in May.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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