**MNI 5 THINGS:NY Fed Survey 1yr And 3yr Infl Exp Up To 3.0%

By Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the April Consumer

Expectations Survey from the New York Fed released Monday: 

- Continuing the upward incline in inflation expectations since August, both the

one-year and three-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0%. The increase in

inflation expectations also came with rising uncertainty in future inflation

outcomes. Consumers also reported increased expectations for year ahead price

changes in medical care, college, rent, food, gas, and home prices. Expectations

for the median home price, in particular, shot up - reaching its highest level

since November 2014.

- Consumers' expectations for the job market were mixed. The perceived

probability of losing a job in the next 12 months fell 0.2pp to 13.7%, as the

probability of leaving a job voluntarily increased slightly to 20.5% - both

indications of consumers viewing a tight labor market ahead. Expectations for

year ahead earnings growth also rose 0.1pp to 2.7%. However, the perceived

probability of the unemployment rate being higher one year from now increased to

34.9%, reaching its trailing 12-month average. Additionally, consumers were less

optimistic about the probability to find a job if their job was lost, as the

measure dipped to 57.1%, reaching its lowest value since May.

- Expectations for future household spending rose for the third month in a row,

a positive sign for future personal consumption. The median household spending

growth expectation now sits at 3.3%, well above the 12-month average of 2.9%.

Interestingly, this comes even as expectations for household income growth

remained unchanged from March, and as perceptions of household finances being

better off now than they were a year ago dipped.

- Optimism in future stock prices has deteriorated. The mean perceived

probability of U.S. stock prices being higher one year from now decreased to

41.5%, its lowest level since November 2016. This decline follows a string of

downwards momentum since January. 

- Consumers were divided on credit accessibility, as there was an increase in

reporting both worsening and improving conditions in credit access since a year

ago. This comes as the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment

over the next three months increased 0.3pp to 11.0%. However, this measure is

still on the low end of survey reports since the start in June 2013.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com

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