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MNI 5 Things: Orders At 21-Mon Low: Oct Chicago Biz Barometer

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the October MNI
Chicago Business Barometer:
     - The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell to a six-month low of 58.4 in
October, down 2.0 points from September, meaning the headline index has now
moderated for three months in a row. Should this trend continue into November,
it would be first time the Barometer has declined for four straight months since
October 2013 (that said, the index overall is in a much healthier position now
compared to then).
     - Order book growth eased for the second straight month in October and,
like the headline index, suggests activity is continuing to cool off after
running hot for much of the past year -- it was the sixth time the New Orders
indicator had lost ground this year. Production, on the other hand, did
strengthen, up marginally after September's 10-point drop.
     - Production continues to be held back by supply chain issues. Wait times
for key materials rose again on the month, with the Supplier Deliveries
indicator at a 14-and-a-half-year high. Firms reiterated concerns that suppliers
are understaffed, both a skilled and unskilled level, holding up their
operations. This month's special question explored this theme, asking firms
whether they thought allocation issues would hamper production in Q4. Though
36.2% of respondents thought this would not be the case, an almost equal share,
31.9%, did foresee difficulties ensuing. The remaining 31.9% were unsure.
     - Employment frustrations were not just isolated to suppliers, however.
Despite being open to hiring, finding workers of a suitable profile remained a
challenge for many organizations. The Employment indicator rose in October, the
first gain since July. There was anecdotal evidence from some firms that they
were shifting priorities to retaining workers.
     - Input price inflation, measured by the Prices Paid indicator, remains
elevated in October, locked in a historically high range. Some firms reported
invoices starting to price in the additional costs from tariffs. Many expected
prices to remain high looking forward, leading to firms stockpiling key items in
order to mitigate against future rises - some did so to as a form of insurance
to keep prices down for the Christmas period.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUDR$,MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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