**MNI 5 THINGS: September US Retail Sales +0.1%, Autos +0.8%>

--5 Things We Learned From The September Retail Sales Data

By Shikha Dave and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the 

September retail sales report from the Commerce Department released 

Monday:               

     - September retail sales were up 0.1% in the month, well below 

analysts projections for a 0.6% gain, and below the more modest 0.4% 

gain expected by markets. There was no revision to August sales. 

Analysts had expected vehicle sales to be mildly stronger, but they 

posted a solid gain. The impact of Hurricane Florence is not yet clear 

in the data, but the impact of Hurricane Michael should be seen in 

greater magnitude next month. 

     - Excluding a 0.8% gain in motor vehicle sales, which was due in 

part to the replacement of vehicles lost in Florence, retail sales were 

down 0.1%, compared with the 0.4% gain expected. The gain in overall 

sales was unrevised in August, but sales excluding motor vehicles was 

revised lower in August. 

     - September sales were flat ex. motor vehicle and gas, below the 

August rate, and were up 0.5% for the "control" group (ex auto, building 

materials, gas and food services), above the flat August reading. The 

data suggest that the underlying current of sales is mixed. 

     - Gas station sales down 0.8% in the month (retail sales ex. gas 

+0.2%), while building materials sales were up 0.1% and food services 

sales were down 1.8%. The key offsets were health and personal care 

stores, and food services and drinking places. Building permit sales are 

likely to rise sharply in the coming months as rebuilding efforts in the 

hurricane-impacted areas increase. 

     - At an annualized rate, average third quarter sales were up 5.1% 

from the second quarter average, based on an MNI calculation. Sales were 

up 6.4% ex motor vehicles, and up 4.8% ex autos, building materials, 

gas, and food services. The result should be a positive factor in PCE 

growth for the quarter. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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