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Free Access**MNI 5 Things: US 1Q GDP Revised Modestly Lower>
--5 Things We Learned From The Second Estimate of 1Q GDP
By Kevin Kastner and Holly Stokes
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the
second estimate of first quarter GDP data released Wednesday by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis:
- First quarter GDP was revised slightly lower to +2.2% SAAR vs
unrevised +2.3% expected, with the price measures trimmed a bit as well,
so there should be little reaction from analysts and the markets. The
alternative measure of Gross Domestic Income was +2.8%, putting the
average of the two measures at +2.5%.
- The small downward adjustment to headline GDP reflected downward
revisions to every component except a large upward adjustment to
nonresidential fixed investment, the revision to the headline figure
could have been larger without that upward adjustment. A downward
revision to inventories growth was the key negative factor.
- The PCE measure was revised down slightly to +1.0%, reflecting an
upward adjustment to goods spending and a downward adjustment to
services spending. The savings rate was unrevised at 3.1% from the
advance estimate, still up from 2.6% in 4Q.
- The prices measures were generally revised lower, with the GDP
price index now +1.9% vs advance +2.0%, while the closely watched core
PCE was revised down to +2.3% from +2.5%, lowering the y/y rate to +1.6%
vs +1.7% in the advance estimate, still slightly ahead of +1.5% in 4Q.
- Real final sales of domestic product were revised up to +2.0% vs
+1.9% in advance estimate, reflecting an improved picture when the
downward adjustment to inventories is excluded. Final sales to domestic
purchasers were revised up solidly to +1.9% vs +1.6% in the advance
estimate.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.