**MNI 5 THINGS: US June Unemp Rate Rises To 4.0%; Jobs +213k>

--5 Things We Learned From The June Employment Data

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the June 

employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday: 

     - The employment data were mixed, with payrolls growth a bit 

stronger than expected, but the unemployment rate rebounded to 4.0% due 

to a surge in household unemployment while hourly earnings were softer 

than expected, up only 0.2%. Some markets will need to parse the 

details. 

     - Nonfarm payrolls rose 213,000, above the 195,000 gain expected. 

The whisper number was for a 190,000 gain, so a surprise to the upside. 

Likewise, private payrolls rose 202,000, compared with a 189,000 gain 

expected. An MNI analysis showed analysts have underestimated payrolls 

in the each of the last five June reports, so today's data maintain that 

trend. 

     - The unemployment rate's rise to 4.0% reflects an increase in the 

participation rate to 62.9% from 62.7% in May. The unrounded rate was 

4.048% for the current month's unemployment rate, so it could have even 

risen to 4.1%. Household employment was up 102,000, while unemployed 

level surged by 499,000 after declines in the previous three months, so 

the labor force rose by 601,000. The alternate U-6 Rate rose to 7.8% 

from 7.6% in May.     

     - Hourly earnings were up 0.2% in the month (+0.186% unrounded) 

after an unrevised 0.3% gain in May, so the year/year rate stayed a 

2.7%. Analysts had expected hourly earnings to rise by 0.3%. Average 

weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours, so along with the payrolls gain, 

aggregate weekly hours rose by 0.2%. 

     - Payrolls in April and May were revised up by a net 37,000, 

reflecting a upward revision to both April and May. For June, there were 

solid gains for manufacturing (+36k), health care (+35k), professional 

and business services (+50k), and leisure (+25k ahead of the summer 

season), but retail payrolls -22k, the glaring weakness. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]