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Free Access**MNI 5 THINGS: US June Unemp Rate Rises To 4.0%; Jobs +213k>
--5 Things We Learned From The June Employment Data
By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Harrison Clarke
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are the key points from the June
employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday:
- The employment data were mixed, with payrolls growth a bit
stronger than expected, but the unemployment rate rebounded to 4.0% due
to a surge in household unemployment while hourly earnings were softer
than expected, up only 0.2%. Some markets will need to parse the
details.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose 213,000, above the 195,000 gain expected.
The whisper number was for a 190,000 gain, so a surprise to the upside.
Likewise, private payrolls rose 202,000, compared with a 189,000 gain
expected. An MNI analysis showed analysts have underestimated payrolls
in the each of the last five June reports, so today's data maintain that
trend.
- The unemployment rate's rise to 4.0% reflects an increase in the
participation rate to 62.9% from 62.7% in May. The unrounded rate was
4.048% for the current month's unemployment rate, so it could have even
risen to 4.1%. Household employment was up 102,000, while unemployed
level surged by 499,000 after declines in the previous three months, so
the labor force rose by 601,000. The alternate U-6 Rate rose to 7.8%
from 7.6% in May.
- Hourly earnings were up 0.2% in the month (+0.186% unrounded)
after an unrevised 0.3% gain in May, so the year/year rate stayed a
2.7%. Analysts had expected hourly earnings to rise by 0.3%. Average
weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours, so along with the payrolls gain,
aggregate weekly hours rose by 0.2%.
- Payrolls in April and May were revised up by a net 37,000,
reflecting a upward revision to both April and May. For June, there were
solid gains for manufacturing (+36k), health care (+35k), professional
and business services (+50k), and leisure (+25k ahead of the summer
season), but retail payrolls -22k, the glaring weakness.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.