MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Jan Trade in Surplus As Exports Up 4%

--In Original Terms, However, Iron Ore, Coal Exports Fall Significantly

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's trade balance posted the biggest surplus since

September as exports rose and imports fell. However, in original terms exports

of all the key select export commodities except LNG fell.

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Thursday show the

trade balance recorded a surplus of A$1.055 billion in January compared with a

revised deficit of A1.15 billion in December. The outcome was higher than MNI

median forecast for zero surplus and was well outside the range predicted by

economists.

     Exports rose 4% m/m due to a 9% rise in mineral fuels, a 75% or A$208

million rise in transport equipment and a 16% rise in metals.

     Imports fell 2% mainly due to a 7% fall in consumption goods driven mostly

by fall in textiles, clothing and footwear. 

     In original terms, both iron ore lump and fines exports saw big decline in

quantities which led to a 17% fall in iron ore lump exports and a 14% fall in

iron ore fines exports.

     Exports of all the three varieties of coal also fell, with quantities for

semi-soft coal seeing a 16% decline and thermal coal falling 10%. Unit values

for both these commodities and also for hard coking coal also fell, leading to a

3% fall in hard coking coal exports, 20% fall in semi-soft coal exports and 15%

fall in thermal coal exports.

     LNG was the only main commodity to see a rise in exports, up 10% as

quantities rose 9%.

     Below is table on International-trade data for January:

                                  January                             December

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  (in A$)                              (in A$)

                      Seasonally Adjusted                  Seasonally Adjusted

Trade Balance                  +1.055 bln  -1.146 bln (revised from -1.36 bln)

MNI Median     0.0 (range -1.5B to +0.8B)

Exports                         33.92 bln                            32.53 bln

Imports                         32.87 bln                            33.68 bln

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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