MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Retail Sales Up But Trend Now Negative

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's retail sales rose more than expected in October,

matching a pace last seen in May, as food services grew strongly and household

goods retailing rebounded.

     The data will provide some comfort to the Reserve Bank of Australia, which

has been worried about prospects for household consumption. However, partly

offsetting this positive message is the trend data, which showed the first fall

in m/m retail sales since 2000.

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Tuesday show retail

sales rose 0.5% m/m in October and followed an upward revision in September

sales to +0.1% from the flat reading originally published. The October rise was

due mainly to a 1.7% m/m increase in sales at cafes, restaurants and takeaway

services, which rose at the fastest pace this year. Household goods retailing

rose 0.1%, the first rise in four months, following a 0.4% fall in September.

     Clothing, footwear and accessories also rose for the first time in four

months, up 1.0% m/m in October, the biggest increase since May. 

     In trend terms, however, retail sales fell into negative territory in

October, down 0.1% after remaining flat in each of the previous three months.

This was the first fall in trend terms since February 2000.

     Below is table for Retail trade data for October:

                                             October                   September

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                  (M/M %, seasonally          (M/M %, seasonally

                                           adjusted)                   adjusted)

Retail Sales                                    +0.5      +0.1(revised from 0.0)

                                 +0.3 (range +0.1 to

MNI Median                                     +0.4)

Food Retailing                                  +0.3                        +0.7

Household Goods                                 +0.1                        -0.4

Clothing, Footwear etc                          +1.0                        -0.7

Department Stores                               +0.5                        +2.4

Other Retailing                                 +0.3                        -1.9

Cafes, Restaurants,

Takeaways                                       +1.7                        +0.7

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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