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MNI ANALYSIS:Australia Retail Shows H'Hold Spend Still A Worry

By Sophia Rodrigues
     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's retail sales rose less than expected in January,
marking a subdued start to household spending in the first quarter of this year
and leaving household consumption as a key uncertainty to the Reserve Bank of
Australia's forecasts.
     The data supports the RBA's hold-for-longer monetary policy stance with
little prospect for a cash rate hike later this year or even in the early part
of next year.
     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Tuesday showed retail
sales rose 0.1% m/m in January, a very subdued outcome compared with MNI median
forecast for a 0.4% rise. It was also on the lowest side of the 0.1% to 0.5%
range predicted by economists in MNI poll. The outcome, however, left trend
retail sales at +0.3% m/m in January and December.
     In the latest month, food retailing was flat m/m, after a 0.8% rise in
December. Household goods retailing rebounded from a 2.8% fall in December but
the rise was just 0.1%. Department stores fell 0.6%, and was down for three
months in a row, suggesting households remain cautious about discretionary
spending.
     Below is table for Retail trade data for January:
                                              January                   December
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                   (M/M %, seasonally         (M/M %, seasonally
                                            adjusted)                  adjusted)
Retail Sales                                     +0.1          -0.5(no revision)
MNI Median                   +0.4(range +0.1 to +0.5)
Food Retailing                                    0.0                       +0.8
Household Goods                                  +0.1                       -2.8
Clothing, Footwear etc                           -0.7                       -0.1
Department Stores                                -0.6                       -1.0
Other Retailing                                  +1.0                       -1.8
Cafes, Restaurants,
Takeaways                                        +0.1                       -0.3
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MALDA$,MALDS$,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]

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