MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Trade In Surplus For 7 Straight Months

--In Original Terms LNG Exports Shine For Second Month On Volumes

--Thermal Coal Exports Also Up

--Metal Exports Up A$370 Million Seasonally Adjusted

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's trade balance continued its surplus spree,

posting a higher-than-expected surplus in July, though a fall in exports and

flat imports meant the positive balance narrowed compared with the month before.

     The data points to a solid start for the third quarter after the second

quarter saw a net export contribution of 0.1 percentage point to GDP.

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Thursday showed the

trade balance recorded a surplus of A$1.55 billion in July, higher than MNI

median forecast for A$1.4 billion. The surplus for June was revised higher to

A$1.94 billion from initial reported A$1.87 billion.

     In July, exports fell 1% m/m due to a 5%, or A$367 million, drop in metal

ores and minerals and a 29%, or A$275 million, fall in other non-rural exports.

Partly offsetting these declines were a 37%, or A$370 million, rise in metals

and a 3%, or A$181 million, rise in coal exports.

     Imports were flat m/m as a 6%, or A$605 million, rise in intermediate goods

imports were offset by a 6%, or A$429 million, fall in capital goods and 4%, or

A$329 million, in consumption goods.

     In original terms, exports rose for three of the six key commodities, with

LNG an outperformer for the second straight month. LNG exports rose 14% or A$464

million as quantities rose 19% but unit values fell 4%.

     Thermal coal exports also performed well for the second consecutive month,

rising A$305 million or 14%, owing to a 10% rise in quantities and a 4% rise in

unit values.

     Iron ore fines, on the other hand, fell 11% or A$410 million because of a

12% decline in quantities, partly offset by a 1% rise in unit values.

     Below is table on international trade data for July:

                                         July                               June

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                      (in A$)                            (in A$)

                          Seasonally Adjusted                Seasonally Adjusted

Trade

Balance                             +1.55 bln  +1.94 bln(revised from +1.87 bln)

MNI Median    +1.4 bln (Range +0.9B to +1.7B)

Exports                             36.07 bln                          36.43 bln

Imports                             34.52 bln                          34.50 bln

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MALDA$,MALDS$,MMLRB$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]