MNI ANALYSIS: Strong Growth In China Oct Trade, Imports Surge

     BEIJING (MNI) - China's foreign trade showed continued robust growth in

October, with exports accelerating for a second straight month despite

escalating trade tensions with the U.S., official data from the General

Administration of China Customs on Thursday showed.

     -- EXPORTS ACCELERATE

     The value of exports rose by 15.6% y/y to USD217.28 billion in October,

exceeding MNI's survey estimate of a 12.0% gain. Growth accelerated for a second

month, in the seventh consecutive month of rising exports.

     For the first ten months of the year, exports rose 12.6% y/y to USD2.04

trillion, compared with 12.3% growth in Jan-Sep period, underlining strong

demands for Chinese goods globally.

     The strong data, however, was likely boosted by a rush of orders for

exporters before U.S. tariffs are due to hit. Stress could show in the months

ahead.

     -- OFFICIAL ENCOURAGEMENT FOR IMPORTS

     Imports jumped by 21.4% y/y in October, 7.1 percentage points faster than

in September. It was the sixth month in the past 10 to record a growth rate of

over 20%, as government policies have encouraged foreign purchases.

     Imports for the first ten months amounted to USD1.79 trillion, 20.3% growth

on a year-on-year basis.

     Earlier this year, at the Bo'ao Forum, President Xi Jinping proposed

further opening up the world's second-largest economy, boosting foreign

purchases and lowering import tariffs. Xi repeated the pledge in a speech at the

first China International Import Expo in Shanghai on Nov. 5.

     -- TRADE SPAT UNLIKELY TO EASE SOON

     Growth in exports to the U.S. decelerated to 13.2% y/y from 14% in

September while imports from the U.S. contracted by 1.8% y/y, after September's

1.2% decline.

     That left China's trade surplus with the U.S. at USD31.78 billion, down

from September's record high of USD34.13 billion.

     The figures showed little impact from little tariffs. With little effect

seen on the trade dispute from the U.S. mid-term elections, investors are now

pinning their hopes for a breakthrough on a meeting later this month between

President Xi and President Donald Trump at the G-20 in Buenos Aires.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: flora.guo@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44208-865-3829; email: Jason.Webb@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MAQDS$,MDQCB$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$,MI$$$$]