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Free AccessMNI: ANALYSTS: Japan Q2 GDP Seen Revised Up on Stronger Capex
TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's economy expanded at a much faster pace than initially
estimated in the April-June quarter as business investment appears to be
stronger than expected, despite emerging downside risks posed by the U.S.-China
trade row, economists forecast Monday, following the release of a key government
survey.
The Cabinet Office will release revised (second preliminary) GDP data for
the April-June quarter at 0850 JST on Monday, Sept. 10 (2350 GMT on Sunday,
Sept. 9).
The median forecast by six economists for revised Q2 GDP is +0.7% on
quarter, or an annualized +2.9%, compared with the preliminary estimate of +0.5%
q/q, or an annualized +1.9%. The forecasts ranged from +0.6% to +0.8% q/q, or
+2.5% to +3.0% at an annualized pace.
In preliminary Q2 GDP data, Japan's economy posted a solid 0.5% rise on
quarter, or an annualized 1.9%, backed by stronger consumption and business
investment and rebounding from a slump in the winter months caused by bad
weather. In Q1, the economy posted the first contraction in nine months, down
0.2% on quarter, or an annualized -0.9%.
--CAPEX UPWARD REVISION
* In April-June, capital investment is forecast by economists to be revised
up sharply to +2.8% on quarter from the initial reading of +1.3%, with forecasts
ranging from +1.8% to +3.6%, based on the
* Economists expect private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of
the GDP, to be unrevised at +0.7% on quarter. In the preliminary data released
last month, it pushed up the Q2 GDP by 0.4 percentage point.
* The contribution of private-sector inventories to the total domestic
output is forecast to be unrevised, being flat with a slightly positive
contribution at +0.0 percentage point.
* Net exports of goods and services -- exports minus imports -- are
expected to have made a negative 0.1 percentage point contribution to the total
domestic output, unrevised from the preliminary estimate.
* Economists also expect public investment to be unrevised at -0.1% on
quarter in Q2. Forecasts ranged from -0.3% to +0.2%.
--BULLISH MOF SURVEY
The key points from the Ministry of Finance quarterly survey called the
Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry:
* Combined capital investment by non-financial Japanese companies surged
12.8% on year in the April-June quarter after rising 3.4% in January-March.
* On quarter, combined capital outlays (excluding software) rose a
seasonally adjusted 6.9% in Q2, marking the fourth straight rise after rising a
revised 0.8% in Q1.
* The MOF survey based on the demand side is the key to calculating
revisions to Q2 GDP due out on Sept. 10. Capex in preliminary GDP is based
solely on supply side data.
--TRADE, PRICE FEARS
Investment in equipment was backed by solid global and domestic demand as
well as the need to cope with labor shortages in April-June, when the U.S.-China
trade dispute had little direct impact on Japanese exports or production.
However, going forward, economists expect Japan's economic growth to slow
in the third quarter.
Sluggish export and production data for July indicated the economy made a
slow start to July-September amid the uncertainty over global growth and in
light of killer rain storms and heat waves in Japan.
Japan's current and outlook sentiment indexes plunged in July, hit by heavy
rains in southwestern regions that killed more than 200 people and destroyed
social infrastructure.
There are concerns about the continued drag from the heavy rains and heat
waves as they have pushed up the prices for farm produce and disrupted land
transportation networks.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAJDS$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.