MNI ASIA FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

https://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7625 Break Can See Further $0.7585-$0.7560 Fall

*RES 4: $0.7730 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: $0.7695/01 Nov 10, Nov 7 highs

*RES 2: $0.7666 Nov 13 high

*RES 1: $0.7650/55 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7627 @2011GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7585/91 1.618 swing $0.7627-$0.7695, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: $0.7571 Jul 5 low

*SUP 3: $0.7560 1.618 swing of $0.7625-$0.7730

*SUP 4: $0.7535 Jun 22 low

*COMMENTARY* The $0.7625 level has recently come under attack again, a slightly

lower $0.7617 level seen so far, as we make our way back towards the lower 1%

volatility band at $0.7591. This then the protection against a further

$0.7571-$0.7560 fall, if the swing of the recent $0.7625-$.7730 rise plays out

in full. As a result, resistance comes initially from $0.7650-$0.7655 but back

above Monday's $0.7666 high currently needed for near term impetus.

KIWI TECHS: Loss Of $0.6910 Can See Some Further Correction Potential

*RES 4: $0.7005 Oct 24 high

*RES 3: $0.6980 Nov 9 high

*RES 2: $0.6958 Nov 10 high

*RES 1: $0.6928/38 Hourly resistance, Nov 13 high

*PRICE: $0.6902 @2025GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6891 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: $0.6875 Nov 6 low

*SUP 3: $0.6850/56 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of $0.6818-$0.6980

*SUP 4: $0.6818 May 10, Oct 27 lows

*COMMENTARY: The $0.6910-15 support has gone, leaving the downside vulnerable to

some further correction of the recent $0.6818-$0.6980 recovery. In this respect,

the $0.6850-$0.6856 area is likely to provide the most important protection to

the dual $0.6818 low. In the meantime, look to $0.6928-$0.6938 for resistance,

back above the latter will take the sting out of the current fall and allow a

further $0.6958-$0.6960 rise

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.1080 Still Provides Immediate Bar To Any Recovery

*RES 4: NZ$1.1151 50% Fibo of NZ$1.1291-NZ$1.1010

*RES 3: NZ$1.1127 Nov 6 high

*RES 2: NZ$1.1096/97 Nov 10, Nov 7,Nov 8 highs

*RES 1: NZ$1.1076/80 Nov 13 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.1048 @ 2033GMT 

*SUP 1: NZ$1.1024/34 4 month rising support line, Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0990/10 76.4% of NZ$1.0898-NZ$1.1289, Nov 9 low

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0974 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0934 76.4% Fibo of NZ$1.0824-NZ$1.1289

*COMMENTARY: Still clinging to support from above the 4 month rising support, a

low of NZ$1.1034 on Friday before finding the ability to bounce. In this

respect, will need to see gains back above NZ$1.1080, before the immediate bear

bias is reduced. Below NZ$1.1034-NZ$1.1024 and focus will switch back to the Nov

9 low at NZ$1.1010 and then the first of two 76.4% Fibo retrace levels at

NZ$1.0990. Above NZ$1.1080 and  previously troublesome NZ$1.0996-97 next.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 4 Month Channel Base Gives Way

*RES 4: Y87.46 Initial low Nov 9, now resistance

*RES 3: Y87.26 Nov 10 high

*RES 2: Y87.09 Nov 13 high

*RES 1: Y86.95 Hourly resistance 

*PRICE: Y86.62 @ 2046GMT

*SUP 1: Y86.51 Nov 13 low

*SUP 2: Y86.39 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: Y85.88 50% Fibo of Y81.49-Y90.28

*SUP 4: Y85.71 Aug 28 low

*COMMENTARY: Failure to move back above Y87.15 has seen renewed downside

pressure, a low of Y86.51 so far, as we move below the previous Y86.59-Y86.56

support. Below Y86.51 and not much ahead of the lower 1% volatility band at

Y86.39. In the interim, nearest resistance falls to Y86.95 but back above

Monday's Y87.09 high is currently required to ease immediate pressure. Below

Y86.39 and the 50% Fibo retrace at Y85.88 is the next attraction.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Rally Reaching Towards A$1.5319-A$1.5328 Resistance

*RES 4: A$1.5462 61.8% Fibo of A$1.6596-A$1.3627

*RES 3: A$1.5393 Oct 26 high

*RES 2: A$1.5328 1% volatility band

*RES 1: A$1.5319 76.4% of A$1.5393-A$1.5080

*PRICE: A$1.5300 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5254 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 2: A$1.5220/30 Hourly support

*SUP 3: A$1.5197 Nov 13 low

*SUP 4: A$1.5165 Hourly congestion area Nov 9-10

*COMMENTARY: Had no trouble in maintaining the break above A$1.5235-36 on

Monday. The rally now approaching the next resistance of significance situated

between A$1.5319-A$1.5328. This a combination of a 76.4% Fibo retrace level and

the upper 1% volatility band. As a result, support rises to A$1.5254 initially

and then more significantly from between A$1.5230-A$1.5220.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Recovery Needs Boost Of A $1.1690 Break

*RES 4: $1.1824 50% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 3: $1.1754 2 month falling resistance line, 1% vol band

*RES 2: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1690 Nov 3 high

*PRICE: $1.1667 @2105GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1615/23 Hourly support, Nov 10 low

*SUP 2: $1.1600 Hourly congestion area Nov 8-9

*SUP 3: $1.1579 Nov 8 low

*SUP 4: $1.1554 Nov 7 low

*COMMENTARY* Found support from around the $1.1555 level last Tuesday, before

being rescued by some near term oversold conditions. Thursday's move back above

the previously troublesome $1.1660 area is a positive and eyes are now on the

the slightly higher $1.1690 high from Nov 3. Clearly above the latter would give

the recovery a further boost. Meanwhile, Friday's $1.1623 low is initial

support, with $1.1600-$1.1579 then protecting that $1.1554-55 area again.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y113.75 Still In Way Of Further Progression

*RES 4: Y114.74 Nov 6 high

*RES 3: Y114.34 Nov 7 high

*RES 2: Y114.07 Nov 9 high

*RES 1: Y113.72/75 Nov 13 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.58 @2112GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.09/22 Nov 9, Nov 10 lows

*SUP 2: Y112.96 Oct 31 low

*SUP 3: Y112.65 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Still finding support from within the recent range, the

Y113.22-Y113.09 area now protecting the key Y112.96 support level. The upside

can still only benefit by a move through Y113.75 resistance, above which would

allow a higher Y114.07-Y114.34 rise, as we claw back some of the recent losses

from Y114.74. Loss of Y112.96 then sees the lower 1% volatility band ahead of

Y112.38 Fibo support.

GOLD TECHS:  Swift Fall After Failed Challenge To $1289.9 Fibo Resistance

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1282.7 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1277.7 @2119GMT

*SUP 1: $1271.8 Nov 7 low

*SUP 2: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 3: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 2 low

*COMMENTARY* After trying at the back end of last week, the rally was unable to

challenge and clear $1289.9 Fibo resistance. As a result, we have seen a swift

retreat, to close the week just above the Nov 7 low at $1271.8. Will need to

remain above this latter level, if the upside momentum gained since the $1265.5

low at the beginning of the month, is to survive. Resistance falls in the

meantime, $1282.7 now the bar to any upside renaissance. 

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]