MNI ASIA FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

https://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7625 Break Can See Further $0.7585-$0.7560 Fall

*RES 4: $0.7730 Nov 2 high

*RES 3: $0.7695/01 Nov 10, Nov 7 highs

*RES 2: $0.7675 Congestion area Nov 8-10

*RES 1: $0.7650/55 Nov 14 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.7633 @2005GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7585/87 1.618 swing $0.7627-$0.7695, 1% vol band

*SUP 2: $0.7571 Jul 5 low

*SUP 3: $0.7560 1.618 swing of $0.7625-$0.7730

*SUP 4: $0.7535 Jun 22 low

*COMMENTARY* The $0.7625 level has recently come under attack again, a low of

$0.7609 seen so far, as we make our way back towards the lower 1% volatility

band and swing target at $0.7587-$0.7585. This then the protection against a

further $0.7571-$0.7560 fall, if the swing of the recent $0.7625-$.7730 rise

plays out in full. As a result, resistance comes initially from $0.7650-$0.7655

but back above the congested $0.7675 area currently needed for near term

impetus.

KIWI TECHS: Lower 1% Volatility Band Takes Sting Out Of The Fall

*RES 4: $0.6980 Nov 9 high

*RES 3: $0.6958 Nov 10 high

*RES 2: $0.6928 Hourly high Nov 10 

*RES 1: $0.6890/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $0.6881 @2022GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6845 Nov 14 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: $0.6818 May 10, Oct 27 lows

*SUP 3: $0.6778 2% volatility band

*SUP 4: $0.6725 61.8% Fibo of $0.6209-$0.7559

*COMMENTARY: The $0.6910-15 support has gone, leaving the downside vulnerable to

some further correction of the recent $0.6818-$0.6980 recovery. In this respect,

the $0.6850 area has been slightly breached but the lower 1% volatility band is

currently protecting the key dual $0.6818 low. In the meantime, look to

$0.6890-$0.6928 for resistance, back above the latter will take the sting out of

the current fall and allow a further $0.6958-$0.6980 rise.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.1080 Break Allows Some Corrective Recovery

*RES 4: NZ$1.1289 Oct 24 high, 2% volatility band

*RES 3: NZ$1.1222/23 Oct 31 high, 76.4% NZ$1.1289-NZ$1.1010

*RES 2: NZ$1.1182 61.8% NZ$1.12891-NZ$1.1010, 1% vol band

*RES 1: NZ$1.1140/49 Nov 14 high, 50% of NZ$1.1289-NZ$1.1010

*PRICE: NZ$1.1090 @ 2044GMT 

*SUP 1: NZ$1.1060/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.1031/34 4 month rising support line, Nov 10 low

*SUP 3: NZ$1.1010 Nov 9 low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0990 76.4% Fibo of NZ$1.0898-NZ$1.1289

*COMMENTARY: Found the ability to rally on Tuesday, moving through initial

resistance at NZ$1.1080. This has allowed some further correction of the

NZ$1.1289-NZ$1.1010 fall, with a move towards the 50% Fibo retrace level at

NZ$1.1149. As a result, support also on the rise, NZ$1.1060-70 now the

protection to the 4 month rising support line at NZ$1.1031. Still have stronger

support from the NZ$1.1010-NZ$1.0990 region.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 4 Month Channel Base Gives Way

*RES 4: Y87.46 Initial low Nov 9, now resistance

*RES 3: Y87.26 Nov 10 high

*RES 2: Y87.09 Nov 13 high

*RES 1: Y86.75/84 Hourly resistance, Nov 14 high 

*PRICE: Y86.53 @ 2055GMT

*SUP 1: Y86.31 Nov 14 low, 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Y85.80/90 1.618 swing target, 50% of Y81.49-Y90.31

*SUP 3: Y85.71 Aug 28 low

*SUP 4: Y85.45 Aug 11 low, 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY: The decline continued on Tuesday, following the break below the 4

month bull channel base a day earlier. A low of Y86.31 so far, basically in line

with the lower 1% volatility band. This can slow the fall, the 50% Fibo retrace

level at Y85.90 then the next downside support to note, ahead of Y85.80, the

1.618 swing target of the Y86.69-Y88.13 rise. In the interim, Y86.75-Y86.84

provides resistance to any recovery hopes.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Continues It's Rise After Monday's A$1.5236 Break

*RES 4: A$1.5647 May 2016 high

*RES 3: A$1.5584 1.618 swing of A$1.5393-A$1.5084

*RES 2: A$1.5505 2% volatility band

*RES 1: A$1.5462/73 61.8% of A$1.6596-A$1.3627, i'day high

*PRICE: A$1.5454 @ 2115GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5375 Hourly support

*SUP 2: A$1.5330 Nov 13 high, now support

*SUP 3: A$1.5279 Hourly base Nov 13 

*SUP 4: A$1.5254 Nov 10 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: Had no trouble in maintaining the break above A$1.5235-36 on

Monday. The subsequent rally gaining in speed on Tuesday, following the move

through A$1.5328. This has seen a A$1.5473 rise, slightly above the 61.8% Fibo

retrace level at A$1.5462. Support now A$1.5375 initially, A$1.5330 currently of

more significance below. Above A$1.5473 and the next resistance comes from the

upper 2% volatility band at A$1.5505 and the swing target at A$1.5584.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Accelerates After $1.1690-$1.1730 Break

*RES 4: $1.1880/87 Oct 12 high, 61.8% of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 3: $1.1837 Oct 26 high

*RES 2: $1.1824 50% Fibo of $1.2093-$1.1554

*RES 1: $1.1803/05 76.4% of $1.1880-$1.1554, intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1792 @2130GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1735/40 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1696 Initial rally high Nov 14, now support

*SUP 3: $1.1678 Nov 10 high, now support

*SUP 4: $1.1638 Nov 13 low

*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday's move back above the previously troublesome $1.1660

area was a positive, as was yesterday's rise through $1.1690-$1.1730 resistance.

This has seen the recovery accelerate, now moving slightly above the 76.4% Fibo

level at $1.1803. As a result, support now from $1.1740-$1.1735, the

$1.1696-$1.1678 area more important below. Through $1.1803 and look to

$1.1824-$1.1837 next, ahead of the $1.1880-$1.1887 region.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Back Under Pressure As 50% Fibo Retrace Caps

*RES 4: Y114.34/35 Nov 7 high, 76.4% Fibo Y114.74-Y113.09 

*RES 3: Y114.07/10 Nov 9 high, 61.8% Fibo Y114.74-Y113.09

*RES 2: Y113.91 50% Fibo Y114.74-Y113.09, Nov 14 high

*RES 1: Y113.60/70 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y113.45 @2135GMT

*SUP 1: Y113.22/24 Nov 10, Nov 13 lows

*SUP 2: Y113.09 Nov 9 low

*SUP 3: Y112.83/96 61.8% of Y111.65-Y114.74, Oct 31 low

*SUP 4: Y112.38 76.4% Fibo of Y111.65-Y114.74

*COMMENTARY* Still finding support from within the recent range, the

Y113.22-Y113.09 area now protecting the key Y112.96-Y112.83 support levels. The

upside failed to move any higher than the 50% Fibo retrace level at Y113.91 on

Tuesday, before giving up some ground again. Will need to see a break above

here, if there is to be any near term respite and allow some greater correction

of losses sustained since the month's earlier Y114.74 high.

GOLD TECHS:  Brief Loss Of $1271.8 Support Is Quickly Reversed

*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high

*RES 2: $1289.9 61.8% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8

*RES 1: $1284.3 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1280.8 @2145GMT

*SUP 1: $1273.5 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1269.9 Nov 14 low

*SUP 3: $1265.5 Nov 3 low

*SUP 4: $1263.8 Oct 27 low

*COMMENTARY* The move below the key $1271.8 support was brief and quickly

reversed on Tuesday. Now looking at $1284.3 for resistance, as we move back up

the recent range. Through here and then the $1289.9 Fibo level once again

becomes the marker to cross, before the upside is released to make further

inroads into the losses sustained since last month's $1306.1 high. Meanwhile,

$1273.5 support should hold any setbacks or caution advised again.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]