EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- MNI FED: Notable Divergence Of Opinion On Direction Of The March Dots
- MNI US-RUSSIA: Russia Agrees To Energy & Infra Ceasefire Following Putin-Trump Call
- MNI EU: Von Der Leyen Says EU Must "Get Ready For War"
- MNI US DATA: Pickup In Import Prices Not Yet Worrying, But Just Beginning
- MNI US DATA: Industrial Production Jump Shows Hint Of Tariff Front-Running
- MNI US DATA: Very Strong Feb Housing Starts Amid Steadily Softening Activity
US
MNI FED: Notable Divergence Of Opinion On Direction Of The March Dots
This week's FOMC decision release is setting up to be unusually uncertain for a meeting in which there will be no change in actual rate policy. As we wrote in our Analyst Outlook for the Fed Preview (link), overwhelming consensus is that the "Dot Plot" medians for 2025-2026 will be unchanged from December's edition - so still showing 50bp of cuts this year (3.9%) and 50bp next (3.4%).
- That's not a surprise, with FOMC participants seen as holding their rate views steady as they weigh the risks of higher inflation vs weaker growth/employment amid major government policy shifts.
- What is surprising to us is that there is a split opinion on the direction of the shift in the dot distribution with many analysts seeing risks tilted toward it moving lower - in other words, a dovish shift in the dots is expected, even if this doesn't translate into a change in the medians themselves. We go through various opinions in the subsequent two notes (excerpted from our Fed preview).
- We would have expected more analysts to place more weight on continued stubbornly high inflation readings, the prospect of higher goods inflation under tariffs, increasingly "in no hurry to cut" commentary from FOMC participants, and the passage of time, in eyeing a drift higher in the dot distribution, for 2025 at least. We provide more detail on this in our Fed preview.
- Our Policy team cites multiple ex-staff/FOMC participants as pointing to current members eyeing 2 or, if not, fewer cuts for 2025 in the Dot Plot as well ("MNI: Fed SEP To Show 2 Or Fewer Cuts, Two-Sided Economy Risks").
- Instead, many analysts appear to believe that FOMC participants will be expressing greater concern over growth than inflation, and/or leaning into market pricing which is between 2 and 3 cuts.
- In the few outright calls for changed 2025-27 medians we have seen, one analyst (Citi) expects an outright move lower in the median (3.6% for 2025), while two (Barclays, UBS) see one cut removed from the rate cut path through 2026 (4.1% median for 2025).
NEWS
MNI US-RUSSIA: Russia Agrees To Energy & Infra Ceasefire Following Putin-Trump Call
The White House and Kremlin have released readouts of the recently concluded call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, with both noting that Moscow agreed to the implementation of a 30-day energy and infrastructure ceasefire. The White House readout notes that the leaders, "stressed the need for improved bilateral relations between the United States and Russia".
- The White House said: "The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace. These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East."
- The White House added: "The leaders spoke broadly about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. They further discussed the need to stop proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with others to ensure the broadest possible application. The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel."
- The White House concludes: "The two leaders agreed that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside. This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved."
- Tass reports that Putin agreed to "halt strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days". Tass notes that Russia also agreed to swap 175 Ukrainian prisoners of war for 175 Russian prisoners of war, to "hand over 23 gravely wounded Ukrainian servicemen to Kyiv, and "set up expert groups on Ukrainian settlement".
MNI EU: Von Der Leyen Says EU Must "Get Ready For War"
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stated in aspeechat the Royal Danish Military Academy in Copenhagen that Europe “must get ready for war,” following a period of “underinvestment” and “complacency” in defence policy. Von der Leyen says: “By 2030, Europe must have strong defence posture," says the EU's 'Readiness 2030' means "to have re-armed and developed capabilities to have credible deterrence.”
MNI UK: Starmer Talks To Trump On Ukraine Plan As Business Sec Visits D.C.
Reuters reports comments from PM Sir Keir Starmer's spox. Says that Starmer spoke to US President Donald Trump by phone late on Monday 17 March to update him on the 'coalition of the willing's' plans to support Ukraine. Spox says Starmer 'reiterated that we must all do all we can to put Ukraine in the strongest position'. With Trump set to hold a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming hours (see 'SECURITY: Trump-Putin Call Expected Between 09:00ET And 11:00ET', 0932GMT), military chiefs from Ukraine's allies (excluding the US) will meet in London on 20 March to discuss how their troops could be deployed in the event of a ceasefire.
MNI GERMANY: Bundestag Passes Debt Brake Reform & Infra Fund Creation w/ 2/3 Maj.
The Bundestag has approved a constitutional amendment to loosen the federal debt brake to allow for greater defence spending, to create an E500B infrastructure fund, and allow the federal states to rack up a structural deficit of 0.35% of GDP. The measures passed with 517 votes in favour and 207 opposed, crossing the two-thirds majority threshold of 489. Following the deal reached late last week, the vote totals would indicate that only a handful of lawmakers from the conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, the centre-left Social Democrats, and the environmentalist Greens did not vote in favour of the landmark reforms.
MNI US TSYS: Focus Turns to Wednesday's FOMC
- Treasuries look to finish higher Tuesday, off late session highs, curves mixed after rebounding off Monday's lows earlier.
- Treasury futures had retreated/extended lows after this morning's data: Housing starts were far stronger than expected in February at 1,501k (1,385k expected, 1,350k prior after -16k revision), effectively reversing the sharp drop in January that may have been weather-impacted, following the jump in December to 1,526k. Building permits, which have been much less volatile of late, came in closer to the mark at 1,456k (1,453k expected, 1,473k prior unrevised).
- Import price inflation was stronger than expected in February, printing 0.4% M/M (0.0% consensus, 0.4% prior after +0.1pp rev), while ex-petroleum import inflation also exceeded expectations at 0.4% (0.2% consensus, 0.1% prior unrev).
- Industrial production picked up strongly in February after a softer January, as a jump in manufacturing activity offset weaker utilities production.
- The Mar'25 10Y currently trades 110-24.5 (+5) vs. 110-14 low/110-29 high - still inside initial technical levels: resistance above at 111-25 (Mar 11 high), support below at 110-12.5/110-00 (Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7). Tsy 10Y yield 4.2793% last, curves off yesterday's lows: 2s10s -1.092 at 23.929, 5s30s +0.495 at 50.597.
- Focus turns to Wednesday's FOMC policy annc. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 steady to softer vs. morning levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 steady at -.2bp, May'25 at -5.4bp ( -6bp), Jun'25 at -18.2bp (-19.7bp), Jul'25 at -26.7bp (-28.7bp).
OVERNIGHT DATA
MNI US DATA: Very Strong Feb Housing Starts Amid Steadily Softening Activity
Housing starts were far stronger than expected in February at 1,501k (1,385k expected, 1,350k prior after -16k revision), effectively reversing the sharp drop in January that may have been weather-impacted, following the jump in December to 1,526k. Building permits, which have been much less volatile of late, came in closer to the mark at 1,456k (1,453k expected, 1,473k prior unrevised).
- Zooming out, the New Construction Report points to a segment of the economy that continues to steadily soften. While the strong starts show much more solid incoming construction activity than expected, this is a very volatile series, and the February figure was still 2.9% below a year earlier (albeit comparing two seasonally-adjusted figures). And permits, which are a leading indicator of starts and completions, fell to a 4-month low (and are down 6.8% Y/Y).
- Single-family homes are increasingly the driving force in construction: permits remained just below 1,000k for the 3rd consecutive month and haven't really dipped in the past year (992k latest, -0.2% Y/Y), whereas multi-unit permits fell to 4-month lows at 464k (-3.1% Y/Y) with their share of total permits down to 31.9%, lowest since May 2024. Unsurprisingly the dynamics are similar for starts: single family starts hit a 12-month high 1,108k, an increase of 113k, while multi-units - despite picking up 38k, are still well below the recent peak in December (437k).
- Regionally, permits in the Northeast hit a 14-month low (116k, down 21k), while those in the West were at a 27-month low (290k, down 24k): the latter could be related to California fires. This was offset by pickups in the Midwest (244k, up 20k) and the South (806k, up 8k).
MNI US DATA: Pickup In Import Prices Not Yet Worrying, But Just Beginning
Import price inflation was stronger than expected in February, printing 0.4% M/M (0.0% consensus, 0.4% prior after +0.1pp rev), while ex-petroleum import inflation also exceeded expectations at 0.4% (0.2% consensus, 0.1% prior unrev).
- That left overall import prices up 2.0% Y/Y (1.6% expected, 1.8% prior), just the second 2-handle since 2022 in another sign that benign annual base effects are wearing off (the low was -6.1% in Jun 2023).
- And ex-petroleum Y/Y returned above 2% for a 4th month in 5 after dipping to fell to a 5-month low (when unrounded) 1.8% in January.
- There isn't much evidence of tariffs and/or tariff front-running in the aggregate changes: nonfuel industrial supplies and materials inflation rose by the most (8.0%) Y/Y since Aug 2022, this is in the context of a steady increase as opposed to a sudden jump in February.
- That being said, manufactured goods prices from China (where additional tariffs applied in February) jumped 1.4% M/M in the month, albeit remain fairly flat on a Y/Y basis. Overall consumer goods import prices were slightly negative (ex-autos) Y/Y.
- That being said, with a higher set of tariffs to be implemented in the coming months across geographies, we would expect core import prices to rise much further. The overall effect will be to boost pipeline price pressures and core goods inflation over the coming months, exacerbating the existing upward trend in the latter (see chart).
- The data also offer the final input into February core PCE: import air passenger fares rose 3.4% M/M, which is in the middle of the range of previous February increases, suggesting that once seasonally-adjusted for PCE purposes it should not be too far out of line. As such we have no reason to believe analysts will adjust their core PCE forecasts for the month from the existing consensus of around 0.33% M/M.
MNI US DATA: Industrial Production Jump Shows Hint Of Tariff Front-Running
Industrial production picked up strongly in February after a softer January, as a jump in manufacturing activity offset weaker utilities production.
- Overall IP rose 0.7% M/M (nearly rounding up to 0.8%) vs 0.2% expected and 0.3% in January (rev down 0.2pp), with the seasonally-adjusted index hitting an all-time high and capacity utilization reaching an 8-month high 78.2%.
- The manufacturing index rose by 0.9%, the quickest pace in 12 months, to hit a 28-month high (the release highlighted an 8.5% M/M rise in motor vehicles/parts production as driving the increase). That's vs 0.3% expected, and came with an upward revision to January (0.1% from -0.1%).
- Utilities came in on the soft side at -2.5% M/M but that's after a 6.1% rise in January (which was attributed to heating during an unusually cold month), and activity in the segment is still up 8.7% Y/Y.
- Momentum in both overall industry and manufacturing has picked up noticeably: while the Y/Y rates were up 1.4% / 0.7% respectively, the 3M/3M annualized rates came in at 5.2% / 2.8% respectively (both the fastest in 33 months).
- As such the upside breakout in production since late 2024 continues, and corresponds with ISM manufacturing returning to above-50 territory for the first two months of 2025.
- That's the good news. Whether this is the result of front-running tariffs is a major question, though, particularly given that the auto sector - one of the most vulnerable to Canada/Mexico trade disruptions - was such a major driver in the month.
- We will continue to watch forward-looking indicators, including in regional Fed surveys, PMIs, and ISMs, to see whether the post-November election bounce can be sustained: early incoming evidence is that it won't be, given sharply deteriorated sentiment.
MNI US DATA: Redbook Report Consistent With Still-Solid March Retail Sales Growth
Johnson Redbook retail sales are up 5.5% Y/Y in March month-to-date (through the week ending Mar 15), slightly softer than retailers' targeted 6.1% rise.
- That would mark a slowdown from February Redbook retail sales growth of 5.9% Y/Y, though the report notes multiple potential mitigating factors, including "fluctuations in customer traffic caused by weather changes in different regions", and "March's relatively slow growth rates are influenced by a later Easter this year, which falls three weeks later than last year."
- But the overall growth rate remains strong. So despite sharply deteriorating consumer sentiment since the end of 2024, this is another data point that suggests it hasn't (yet) been translating into weaker hard data.
- Overall the series (which purports to cover 80% of Census Bureau retail sales) continues to suggest "official" retail growth remaining consistent with levels seen since early 2024, during which time Control Group sales (a GDP input) have averaged 4.0% Y/Y - exactly in line with the 4.0% Redbook average.
- Recall February Census Bureau retail sales came in at 3.1% Y/Y but Control Group was a stronger 4.4% (both adjusted series).
- One additional methodological note from Johnson Redbook: "March is a five-week month on the retail calendar, ending on April 5."
MNI US DATA: Collapsing NY Services Sentiment Consistent With Weaker National ISM
The headline business activity index in the NY Fed's Business Leaders Survey of regional service firms fell to -19.3 in March, from -10.5 prior (there was no consensus estimate). This was the 4th consecutive deterioration in the index to the lowest since January 2023.
- Even more concerning, the business climate index fell 16.1 points to -51.7, the lowest since early 2021, with capex softening. There was no relief on the inflationary front: prices paid rose 7.5 points to 58.8 with prices received up 1.3 to 28.7: both post-2023 highs.
- Forward-looking indicators also deteriorated: 6-month business activity fell 24.9 points to -3.3, lowest since late 2022, with future business climate down 23.3 points. And this was reflected in post-2020 lows for expected number of employees (down 6.9 points to 3.8), wages (down 5.7 points to 26.9), and capex (-5.5 points to -3.9).
- The survey didn't identify any particular trigger for the sharp shift in the last two months, but it seems very likely to be related to the ongoing changes in federal government policy including on tariffs - the initial rounds of which have impacted trade with NY-neighboring Canada - and general uncertainty. (The survey was conducted between March 3 and 11).
- While we await regional Fed services surveys for March from Dallas, Philadelphia and Kansas City, the NY services pullback is also consistent with a retreat in the national ISM services index in March - see chart.
MNI CANADA DATA: Inflation Breadth Increases In February
- MNI calculations show a further acceleration in the breadth of inflation pressures in February.
- The share of the entire CPI basket growing faster than 3% Y/Y (i.e. above the 1-3% target range) increased from 31% in Jan to 36% for its highest since Mar 2024.
- Whilst the two-month GST/HST holiday that started mid-Dec will have artificially held previous readings down, this relative strength going back almost a year is still notable.
- The levels need to be seen in perspective though, with the >3% Y/Y share for the entire basket averaging a similar 33% in 2019 and having topped out at 80% in 2H22. Nevertheless, it acts as a reminder of two-sided inflation risks.
- Within the details, the latest increase mainly came from goods, with the >3% Y/Y share of goods rising from 27% to 32% (highest since Mar 2024), but services also built on last month’s strong increase to lift from 43% to 44% (highest since Jun 2024).
MARKETS SNAPSHOT
Key market levels of markets in late NY trade:
DJIA down 260.32 points (-0.62%) at 41581.31
S&P E-Mini Future down 57.75 points (-1.01%) at 5674.25
Nasdaq down 304.5 points (-1.7%) at 17504.12
US 10-Yr yield is down 1.5 bps at 4.2831%
US Jun 10-Yr futures are up 5/32 at 110-24.5
EURUSD up 0.0026 (0.24%) at 1.0948
USDJPY up 0.12 (0.08%) at 149.32
WTI Crude Oil (front-month) down $0.73 (-1.08%) at $66.85
Gold is up $34.52 (1.15%) at $3035.09
European bourses closing levels:
EuroStoxx 50 up 39.46 points (0.72%) at 5485.01
FTSE 100 up 24.94 points (0.29%) at 8705.23
German DAX up 226.13 points (0.98%) at 23380.7
French CAC 40 up 40.59 points (0.5%) at 8114.57
US TREASURY FUTURES CLOSE
3M10Y -0.345, -0.123 (L: -3.792 / H: 3.26)
2Y10Y -0.689, 24.332 (L: 23.527 / H: 27.583)
2Y30Y -0.01, 54.542 (L: 53.45 / H: 57.981)
5Y30Y +1.071, 51.173 (L: 49.444 / H: 52.989)
Current futures levels:
Jun 2-Yr futures up 0.75/32 at 103-11.75 (L: 103-10.375 / H: 103-12.875)
Jun 5-Yr futures up 3.25/32 at 107-22.5 (L: 107-16.75 / H: 107-25.75)
Jun 10-Yr futures up 4.5/32 at 110-24 (L: 110-14 / H: 110-29)
Jun 30-Yr futures up 6/32 at 117-5 (L: 116-10 / H: 117-14)
Jun Ultra futures up 8/32 at 122-24 (L: 121-21 / H: 123-04)
MNI US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 113-02 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 112-13 1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
- RES 2: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
- RES 1: 111-25 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 110-20+ @ 10:27 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 110-14+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-12+/00 Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7 and 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
- SUP 4: 108-21 Low Feb 19
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play and the current consolidation marks a pause in the uptrend. A bull theme is reinforced by MA studies that are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains have resulted in a print above 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear breach of this level would open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projections. Firm support is 110-00, the Feb 7 high.
SOFR FUTURES CLOSE
Mar 25 -0.003 at 95.685
Jun 25 -0.010 at 95.875
Sep 25 -0.015 at 96.080
Dec 25 steady00 at 96.235
Red Pack (Mar 26-Dec 26) +0.010 to +0.030
Green Pack (Mar 27-Dec 27) +0.030 to +0.035
Blue Pack (Mar 28-Dec 28) +0.035 to +0.040
Gold Pack (Mar 29-Dec 29) +0.030 to +0.035
SOFR FIXES AND PRIOR SESSION REFERENCE RATES
SOFR Benchmark Settlements:
- 1M +0.00259 to 4.31937 (+0.00297/wk)
- 3M +0.00940 to 4.30469 (+0.00964/wk)
- 6M +0.01746 to 4.21726 (+0.01889/wk)
- 12M +0.03422 to 4.06520 (+0.04736/wk)
US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.32% (+0.02), volume: $2.473T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.31% (+0.02), volume: $977B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.31% (+0.02), volume: $952B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
STIR: FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $106B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $279B
FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rebounds to $149.503B this afternoon from $89.496B Monday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties at 39 from 25 prior.
MNI PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $3.5B Volkswagen 6Pt Launched, 3Y SOFR Dropped
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 03/18 $3.5B #Volkswagen AM $550M 2Y +93, $300M 2Y SOFR+106, $1.1B 3Y +108, $500M 5Y +132, $500M 7Y +147, $550M 10Y +155
- 03/18 $3.5B #ING $750M 4NC3 +85, $750M 4NC3 SOFR+101, $1B 6NC5 +100, $1B 11NC10 +125
- 03/18 $2.5B #NatWest $750M 3Y +78, $500M 3Y SOFR+95, $900M 5Y +95, $350M 5Y SOFR+119
- 03/18 $2.1B #Ford Motor $1B 3Y +190, $350M 3Y SOFR+203, $750M 7Y +235
- 03/18 $2B *ADB 10Y SOFR+57
- 03/18 $1.1B #Xcel Energy $350M 3Y +85, $750M 10Y +135
- 03/18 $1B #Bangkok Bank 15NC10 +178
- 03/18 $850M #PacifiCorp 30NC5.25 7.375%
- 03/18 $562M #Chile Electricity 10.6Y +160
- 03/18 $500M #CNH Industrial Capital 3Y +87
- 03/18 $Benchmark LG Energy 3Y, 5Y, 10Y investor calls
MNI BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: German Twist Steepening As Fiscal Reform Confirmed
European curves steepened Tuesday, with short-end German instruments outperforming.
- Core FI fell to the session's weakest levels in morning trade as the two day rally in equities appeared to extend into a third.
- But the equity rally faded in the afternoon, with oil prices also fading, helping core FI fully recover (though also reversing earlier periphery / semi-core EGB spread tightening).
- The Bundestag approved the much anticipated German fiscal reforms including a loosening of the debt brake, though this appeared to have been well-anticipated as Bunds saw only limited and temporary weakness following the news.
- Comments by ECB's Rehn in an MNI Connect event suggested that there is a high bar to him not voting for a cut in April (markets still have it better than 50/50 implied). In data, the Eurozone trade surplus was slightly larger than expected in January, while German ZEW jumped to the highest in 3 years (corresponding to the DAX equity rally and above fiscal developments).
- The German curve twist steepened on the day, with yields down through the 10Y segment, while the UK's bear flattened through the 10Y segment (though 2s30s was higher). Periphery/semi-core spreads closed a little wider.
- We get final February Eurozone inflation data Wednesday, but the week's main events in Europe are in the UK Thursday with labour market data and the BoE decision.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.3bps at 2.176%, 5-Yr is down 1.2bps at 2.46%, 10-Yr is down 0.8bps at 2.81%, and 30-Yr is up 0.5bps at 3.121%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.8bps at 4.201%, 5-Yr is up 0.7bps at 4.295%, 10-Yr is up 0.5bps at 4.643%, and 30-Yr is up 1.1bps at 5.229%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.8bps at 110.8bps / French OAT up 0.9bps at 68.3bps
MNI FOREX: EURUSD Optimism Prevailing, USDCHF Slides 0.5%
- The Euro was a beneficiary on Monday as Germany's parliament approved plans for a massive spending surge, diverging from prior fiscal conservatism in an attempt to revive economic growth and scale up defence spending. EURUSD trades in close proximity of recovery highs, currently located at 1.0955.
- Spot rising above the bull trigger at 1.0947 strengthens the current uptrend and signals scope for a move towards pivot resistance at 1.10 and a more notable cluster of medium-term resistance around the 1.12 mark.
- Tuesday’s session was categorised by a swift reversal lower for the major US equity benchmarks, which prompted Aussie to be among the weakest in G10, allowing AUDUSD to erase around half of yesterday’s strong rally. Key resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high, continues to cap the topside. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle and confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Feb 3.
- Weaker risk sentiment knocked Cross/JPY off the overnight highs, however, USDJPY trades close to unchanged as we approach the APAC crossover. It is worth noting we have the Bank of Japan tomorrow and so positioning dynamics may have affected price action today. In contrast, and with the SNB decision not until Thursday, the Swiss Franc is the strongest of the major currencies. USDCHF is 0.5% lower on the session, and will focus on 0.8736, the December lows. To highlight USDCHF’s vulnerability to a further correction lower, we would highlight that the pair remains 1.65% above the Nov 06 US election lows, located at 0.8620.
- The Bank of Japan kicks off a busy economic calendar on Wednesday, which culminates with the March Fed decision and release of its summary of economic projections. Final February Eurozone inflation readings and its additional details are also scheduled on Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY DATA CALENDAR
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 19/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** |  EU | HICP (f) |
| 19/03/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 19/03/2025 | 1200/1300 | EU | ECB de Guindos In Madrid | |
| 19/03/2025 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB Elderson At European Financials Conference | |
| 19/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 19/03/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Statement |
| 19/03/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 20/03/2025 | 2145/1045 | *** |  NZ | GDP |
| 20/03/2025 | - |  CH | Swiss National Bank Meeting | |
| 20/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |