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9 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U17) Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA
*RES 4: 98.179 - 55-WMA
*RES 3: 98.128 - 100-DMA
*RES 2: 98.120 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 98.084 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: 98.050 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 98.030 - Low Aug 4
*SUP 2: 98.015 - 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 98.010 - Repeated Daily Lows
*SUP 4: 97.980 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The rally that defined most of last week is struggling having
stalled around the 200-DMA. Bears now look for a close below 98.010 to confirm
an easing of bullish pressure and to hint at a move back to 97.810-860 with
below 97.980 confirming. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case.
Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially
target 55 & 100-DMAs.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U17) 97.3150 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 97.5200 - Low June 20 now resistance
*RES 3: 97.4867 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: 97.4316 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: 97.4020 - 100-DMA
*PRICE: 97.3500 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.3150 - Hourly support Aug 3
*SUP 2: 97.2500 - Low July 27
*SUP 3: 97.2326 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 97.2100 - Monthly Low July 20
*COMMENTARY: Bulls are struggling to gain traction above the 200-DMA (97.3353)
with the contract capped around the 100-DMA. The 97.3150 support remains key
with bears needing a close below to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to
97.1650-2100. Daily studies looking to correct from modestly O/B levels add
weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to reconfirm a
bullish bias and above 97.5200 to target 2017 highs.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 21-DMA & 126-090 Levels Key
*RES 4: 127-080 - Monthly High June 14
*RES 3: 126-290 - High June 26
*RES 2: 126-160 - Low June 21 now resistance, Bollinger top
*RES 1: 126-090 - Hourly support Aug 4 now resistance
*PRICE: 126-000 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 125-290 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support, 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 125-160 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 125-150 - Low July 25
*SUP 4: 125-070 - High July 11 now support
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA and support emerging on dips below
the 55-DMA (126-010) are concerns for bears who need a close below the 21-DMA to
add weight to their case for a correction with below the 100-DMA (125-160) to
shift focus back to 124-110/250. The 126-090/160 resistance region remains key.
Bulls look for a close above 126-090 to gain breathing room and above 126-160 to
shift focus to 126-290/127-080.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA
*RES 4: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14, Bear channel top
*RES 3: 2.321 - High Aug 1
*RES 2: 2.314 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8
*PRICE: 2.262 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.247 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 2.237 - Hourly resistance Aug 4 now support
*SUP 3: 2.218 - Low Aug 3
*SUP 4: 2.177 - High June 21 now support
*COMMENTARY: The rally Friday provided bulls breathing room but a close above
the 200-DMA is needed to confirm a return in focus to 2.337-396 where the daily
bear channel top (2.337) is noted. The 2.218-2.237 support region is now key.
Bears need a close below 2.237 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below 2.218
to reconfirm focus on tests of 2017 lows. The Bollinger base (2.212) is the key
concern for bears with potential to limit follow through.
JGB TECHS: (U17) 150.33-48 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 150.47 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: 150.41 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 150.33 - High July 25
*RES 1: 150.30 - High Aug 4
*PRICE: 150.25 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 150.14 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 150.11 - Low Aug 2
*SUP 3: 150.06 - Low July 20
*SUP 4: 150.03 - Low July 18
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA and key 150.03-08 support
region provided the catalyst for a bounce last week only to be capped ahead of
the 55-DMA (150.32) Friday. The 150.33-48 resistance region remains key. Bulls
need a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a bullish bias and shift immediate
focus to 150.67. Bears continue to look for a close below 150.03 to confirm a
break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to 149.65.
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