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31 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (U17) 97.940 Support Now Key
*RES 4: 98.119 - 100-DMA
*RES 3: 98.090 - High Aug 4
*RES 2: 98.064 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: 98.045 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: 97.990 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.960 - Low Aug 30
*SUP 2: 97.940 - Low July 26
*SUP 3: 97.900 - Low July 21
*SUP 4: 97.864 - 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped on bounces by key DMAs with the 55-DMA
capping Tuesday. Layers of resistance 98.045-130 remain key. Bulls need a close
above the 200-DMA to add support to their case for a break higher with above
98.130 needed to end bearish hopes and initially target 98.200-240. Bears
continue now look for a close below 97.940 to add weight to the case for a move
back to 97.810-860.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (U17) Narrowing Bollinger Bands Suggest Breakout
*RES 4: 97.4450 - High June 30
*RES 3: 97.4250 - High Aug 18
*RES 2: 97.4200 - High Aug 29
*RES 1: 97.3650 - Hourly support Aug 29 now resistance
*PRICE: 97.3650 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.3165 - 200-DMA, Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 97.3150 - Low Aug 15
*SUP 3: 97.2975 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 97.2500 - Low July 27
*COMMENTARY: The 97.3150 support confirmed significance having stalled the
correction lower from 55 & 100-DMA failures. Bears need a close below 97.3150 to
confirm a break of the 200 DMA and below 97.1650 to confirm focus on tests of
96.9800-97.0600 where 2017 lows are located. Bulls continue to look for a close
above the 55-WMA (97.4467) to shift focus to 97.6100-6750.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 126-250/300 Support Region Key
*RES 4: 127-310 - 100-WMA
*RES 3: 127-190 - 2017 High Aug 29 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: 127-110 - Hourly resistance Aug 29
*RES 1: 127-060 - Hourly resistance Aug 30
*PRICE: 127-040 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 126-300 - Repeated daily highs now support
*SUP 2: 126-250 - Hourly support Aug 25
*SUP 3: 126-200 - Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support
*SUP 4: 126-180 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Tuesday's rally with the Bollinger
top (127-080) the key concern for bulls who now focus on the 100-WMA. A weekly
close above the 100-WMA was last seen in Nov 2016. Layers of support remain but
the 126-250/300 support remains key. Bears need a close below 126-300 to ease
immediate bullish pressure and below 126-250 to hint at a correction back to
126-110-180 where the bull channel base and 21-DMA are situated.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.155-180 Resistance Key
*RES 4: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17
*RES 3: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance
*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28
*RES 1: 2.155 - Low Aug 28 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.136 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.133 - Low Aug 30
*SUP 2: 2.119 - Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support
*SUP 3: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29
*SUP 4: 2.054 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of 2.229 in previous weeks resulted in fresh 2017 and
10mth lows with bears now initially focused on 1.991-2.054 with overall focus on
1.879 which is the breakout level from Nov 2016. The recovery has stalled ahead
of the 2.155-180 region. Bulls need a close above 2.155 to gain breathing room
and above 2.180 to shift focus back to 2.206-2.229. Bears look for a close below
2.119 to gain breathing room.
JGB TECHS: (U17) O/B Daily Studies Correcting & Weighing
*RES 4: 151.35 - 2017 High Aug 29
*RES 3: 151.34 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 151.25 - Hourly resistance Aug 30a
*RES 1: 151.14 - Hourly resistance Aug 30
*PRICE: 151.05 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 151.01 - High Aug 24 now support
*SUP 2: 150.95 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: 150.84 - High Aug 18 now support
*SUP 4: 150.66 - Low Aug 23, 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2017 and 10mth highs
has left the contract looking heavy. Daily studies correcting from O/B are
adding weight to the case for move back to 150.66 where the 21-DMA is located.
Layers of resistance are also weighing with bulls now needing a close above
151.25 to retain focus on 151.58-152.04 where Nov highs are situated. Bears
still need a close below 151.01 to initially shift focus back to 150.66-84.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: email@example.com
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