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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak

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Bullish Price Sequence

MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

13 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (Z17) Below 97.960 To End Bullish Hopes 
*RES 4: 98.110 - High Nov 28 & 29 
*RES 3: 98.092 - Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 2: 98.065 - Hourly resistance Dec 4, High Dec 8 
*RES 1: 98.015 - High Dec 12
*PRICE: 97.980 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.968 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 2: 97.967 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 97.960 - Monthly Lows Nov 1 & 2 
*SUP 4: 97.900 - Low Oct 27
*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to layers of support 97.960-968 where the
bull channel base and 55-DMA are situated. Bears look for a close below 97.960
to end bullish hopes, shifting initial focus to 97.900 and overall focus back to
2017 lows (97.720). The Bollinger base (96.982) is the key concern for bears.
Layers of resistance are building with bulls now needing a close above 98.015 to
ease bearish pressure and above 98.065 to shift focus back to 98.110-130.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (Z17) Focus Returns to 97.2926-3650 
*RES 4: 97.5200 - Low June 20 now resistance
*RES 3: 97.5151 - Bollinger band top
*RES 2: 97.5000 - Hourly resistance Dec 1, High Dec 8
*RES 1: 97.4650 - Hourly resistance Dec 8
*PRICE: 97.4375 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.4097 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: 97.3842 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 97.3750 - Low Dec 5
*SUP 4: 97.3473 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing aggressively from the week's lows, topside
hesitation ahead of the 97.5200 resistance is a concern for bulls and leaves the
contract looking heavy as focus returns to the 97.2926-3650 where key DMAs are
noted. Resistance layers building adds weight to the bearish case. Bulls still
look for a close above 97.4650 to ease bearish pressure and above 97.5200 to
shift focus to 97.6100-6750 where 2017 highs are located.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 123-27 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: 124-22+ 55-DMA 
*RES 3: 124-17+ High Dec 11 
*RES 2: 124-11 High Dec 12 
*RES 1: 124-06 Hourly resistance Dec 12
*PRICE: 124-03+ @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 124-00 Low Dec 12
*SUP 2: 123-29+ Monthly Low Nov 30
*SUP 3: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27
*SUP 4: 123-06+ Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in continued topside failures ahead of the
55-DMA and bear channel top. The sell-off Thursday left the contract looking
heavy once more with focus having returned to 123-27/29+ where monthly lows are
noted. Below 123-27 remains needed to target the bear channel base (123-06+).
Bulls now look for a close above 124-11 to gain breathing room and above the
bear channel top (124-24+) to initially pressure 125-00.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.437 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: 2.539 - LT Weekly Bear channel top (off 2014 High) 
*RES 3: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27 
*RES 2: 2.437 - High Nov 30 
*RES 1: 2.424 - High Dec 1
*PRICE: 2.403 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.395 - High Dec 12 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.376 - Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 
*SUP 3: 2.351 - Hourly resistance Dec 7 now support 
*SUP 4: 2.303 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The yield found support last week ahead of the 200-DMA and key
2.273-2.303 support region where the 100-DMA and 21-WMA are also noted. The
close above Wednesday's high (2.363) eased bearish pressure and sees focus back
on the 2.437 resistance. Bulls need a close above this level to return pressure
to 2.477 Oct highs with a close above then targeting 2017 highs. Bears need a
close below 2.351 to pressure the 200-DMA.
JGB TECHS: (Z17) Topside Follow Through Lacking 
*RES 4: 151.19 - Monthly high Nov 22
*RES 3: 151.13 - High Nov 24
*RES 2: 151.05 - High Dec 8
*RES 1: 150.97 - Alternating hourly support/resistance
*PRICE: 150.89 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.84 - Alternating hourly sup/res 
*SUP 2: 150.75 - Low Dec 5 
*SUP 3: 150.67 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: 150.60 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through on the break above 151.00 was lacking Friday
with the focus back on the bull channel base (150.86). Bears now need a close
below 150.84 to confirm a break of the channel base and shift focus to 150.54-75
where 55, 100 & 200 DMAs are clustered. Bulls now need a close above 150.97 to
gain breathing room and above 151.05 to reconfirm focus on 151.19-21 where Nov
highs are located.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]