MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

21 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (M18) Close Below 55-DMA Targets 97.790 

*RES 4: 97.947 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 97.935 - High Mar 15 

*RES 2: 97.908 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 97.870 - Lows Mar 16 & 19 now resistance

*PRICE: 97.840 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.836 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 97.790 - Low Feb 8 

*SUP 3: 97.755 - Low Feb 5 

*SUP 4: 97.705 - Low Jan 31

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 55-DMA (97.841) tests stalled ahead of the

97.947-994 region where the 200-DMA, 200-WMA and bear channel top off 2017 highs

are noted leaving M18 looking heavy. Bears continue to look for a close below

the 55-DMA to confirm a shift in initial focus to 97.790 and overall focus to

97.690 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 100-DMA to shift initial

focus back to 97.935-994.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-WMA 

*RES 4: 97.3850 - 2018 High Jan 8

*RES 3: 97.3241 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 97.3203 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: 97.3150 - High Mar 20

*PRICE: 97.2750 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.2475 - Lows Mar 15 & 16

*SUP 2: 97.2350 - High Mar 9 now support

*SUP 3: 97.2315 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 97.1750 - Hourly resistance Feb 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rally from 97.1750 is hesitating around the 200-DMA (97.3029)

with the 55-WMA and Bollinger top lurking above. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 55-WMA to initially target 97.3850 and then 97.5200 Nov/Dec

highs. Bears need a close below 97.2350 to ease bullish pressure and below

97.1750 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (97.2008) and bull channel base,

targeting 97.0450 2018 lows.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Focus Returns To 119-14/26+

*RES 4: 120-23  High Mar 1

*RES 3: 120-20  Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 120-16  High Mar 19

*RES 1: 120-05  Hourly support Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-00 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*SUP 2: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb, Bollinger base

*SUP 3: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Lower daily lows and highs leave the contract looking heavy with

bears taking comfort from a likely close below the 21-DMA (120-04+) and focus

having returned to 119-14/26+. Bears now look for a close below 119-14 to

initially target 118-24 last seen in Apr 2011. Bulls now need a close above

120-16 to ease bearish pressure. Overall a close above the 55-DMA (121-02+) is

needed to end bearish hopes and initially target 122-02.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.957 To Target 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.933 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 2.925 - High Feb 27

*PRICE: 2.900 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.874 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 2: 2.852 - Low Mar 20 

*SUP 3: 2.833 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with

the correction from 2.914 finding support ahead of this region and the recovery

breaking the bear channel top off 2018 highs. The close above 2.892 adds to

bullish confidence with a close above 2.957 2018 highs to shift focus back to

tests of 3.041 2014 highs. Bears now need a close below 2.833 to shift focus

back to 2.758-793.

     JGB TECHS: (M18) 21-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2

*RES 3: 151.06 - High Mar 12

*RES 2: 150.97 - Low Mar 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 150.91 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 150.82 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.73 - High Mar 14 now support 

*SUP 2: 150.67 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 150.62 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 150.55 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 200-DMA tests that defined last week is

struggling with follow through lacking above the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close

above 150.97 to confirm focus on layers of resistance 151.15-19. The contract is

looking a little heavy with the 21-DMA capping and hints at a correction

initially targeting 150.62-73 where key DMAs are clustered. Below 150.55 is

needed to target 150.36 and then 150.08-09 where 2018 and Oct lows are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]