MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

17 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 97.770 

*RES 4: 97.831 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 3: 97.815 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 97.770 - Lows May 9 & 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: 97.750 - Lows May 3 & 4 now resistance

*PRICE: 97.735 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.686 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 97.675 - 2018 Low Apr 24 

*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 15 2015 

*SUP 4: 97.510 - High Nov 25 2014 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55 & 100-DMAs has taken its toll with a

sell-off that sees immediate focus back on tests of 2018 lows. Daily studies are

well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bears now look for a close below 97.675 to

shift focus to 97.605 2015 lows. Bulls now need a close above 97.770 to ease

bearish pressure and shift initial focus to 97.815-865 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

noted.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (M18) Pressuring LT Bull Channel Base 

*RES 4: 97.2423 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: 97.2223 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: 97.1800 - Low May 10 now resistance

*RES 1: 97.1500 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: 97.0850 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 97.0800 - Low Feb 21

*SUP 2: 97.0450 - 2018 Low Feb 6

*SUP 3: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10 2017

*SUP 4: 96.8850 - Low July 14 2015

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of the 200-DMA during May so far has

taken its toll with a sharp sell-off that sees immediate focus back on 2018

lows. The LT weekly bull channel base is noted at 97.0873 with a close below

97.0450 needed to confirm a break and initially target 2017 lows. Bulls now look

for a close above 97.1800 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above the

200-WMA (97.3151) to target 97.4000-4400.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bears Focused On Weekly Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 119-13+ 21-DMA

*RES 3: 119-07 High May 15

*RES 2: 118-31 Low Apr 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 118-25+ High May 16

*PRICE: 118-17+ @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 118-14 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 2: 117-29+ Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*SUP 3: 117-22+ 2011 Low Feb 9

*SUP 4: 117-07+ Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation around the 21-DMA provided the impetus

for a fresh leg lower and 2018 & 7yr lows. Bears focus attention on the weekly

bear channel base coming in around 117-07+. Daily studies have room to move

before O/S is an issue. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing.

Bulls now need a close above 119-07+ to ease bearish pressure and above the

21-DMA to pressure 119-31/120-06+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3.011

*RES 4: 3.249 - High May 12 2011 

*RES 3: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 2: 3.184 - High July 8 2011 

*RES 1: 3.123 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 3.063 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 3.058 - Low May 16 

*SUP 2: 3.011 - Hourly support May 15 

*SUP 3: 2.972 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.937 - Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: Focus on 3.041-073 has taken its toll with fresh 2018 & 7yr highs

seeing bulls shift initial focus to layers of resistance 3.184-3.249 where

channel tops and July 2011 monthly high are situated. Daily studies have room to

move before O/B is an issue. The 3.011 support is now key. Bears now look for a

close below this level to ease bullish pressure. Overall below 2.876 is needed

to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (2.884) and shift focus lower.

     JGB TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 151.03 - High Apr 12

*RES 3: 150.95 - Low Apr 12 now resistance

*RES 2: 150.85 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: 150.76 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 150.71 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 150.62 - Low May 16 

*SUP 2: 150.53 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 150.52 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 150.39 - Monthly Low Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to gain traction below the 200-DMA

(150.71) with downside follow through lacking Wednesday. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 55-DMA to shift focus to layers of resistance

Y150.95-151.06. While the 55-DMA caps bears focus on 150.36-39 but now need a

close below 150.62 to add weight to their case. Daily studies are well placed

for a fresh leg lower.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]